Glenroi Heights

GOING BACK TO WHERE IT CAME FROM

2011-06-24T14:00:00.001+10:00

Worthy as it seemed, I pre-emptivly wrote 'Go Back to Where You Came From' off, via the preaching/converted trope uttered by many. Happily, I and the other naysayers were wrong- an extraordinary three hours of TV, decent and rational. Not balanced enough for some (click on that if you enjoyed the show and want to get your anger on), but good enough to light a fire under the issue, a more detailed and complicated spark that, at worst, has done a lot to inject some thought back into the issue.

It goes well with a blog post I'd been prepping earlier in the week. Which went a little something like this.

Can we go back, just a little?

It's April 2001. Prime Minister Howard is shot- After winning narrowly in 1998, pushing a GST through, and appearing hilariously unstatesmanlike at every turn, the people are looking like giving him the boot. He's turning out to be a strangely grey, unlikeable turd. The people don't feel pride when they see their leader speaking for them- they cringe, and this tax, the one that Keating used to win the unwinnable 1994 election, still freaks voters. In a Neilson poll published on April 6 2001, Labor led the government 60% - 40% on two-party. It's the biggest lead Kim Beazley's party gains, but it comes on the back of a long run of favourable two party margins. We don't really know much of what Kim is offering us as an alternative- he hasn't defined a narrative as such, though he will roll the GST back- but we like him. He's a good mix of warmth and nobility. He's jolly, but speaks well when the circumstance requires something grave and heartfelt. We're getting ready, as a nation, to put this dalliance with the throwback nerd behind us, call it a terrible mistake, and move on with the better bits of the Keating program delivered by a warmer, gentler leader.

Then, in August, the Howard government refuses safe passage for the Norwegian tanker MV Tampa, which has picked up 438 refugee seekers from Afghanistan, whose vessel had come into troubles. Tampa was on its way to the Australian coastline, as per the protocols set down by UNHCR decree. So you can imagine Tampa and Norway's surprise when the Prime Minister, who had clawed back some points and whose government were currently polling at 47% two-party, starts the 'we will decide who enters this country and the circumstances in which they come' message and leaves Tampa in limbo. Norway cries foul on human rights, Australia stays firm. And 438 people become an effective wedge.

Beazley was under pressure from the left to condemn the action, but his 20% lead from April was now a 6% lead, and he shakily attempted a compromise deal. His lack of a bold, outright condemnation brought questions of his 'ticker'. He was 'wishy-washy'. And the Australian people don't like that. Better someone be loudly wrong than quietly considerate.

Then, a month later, 9/11 happens. The next Neilson poll, taken on September 21, gives the government a 14% point lead over Labor. A 34% turnaround from just four months prior. Labor gains ground up until the election in November, but as we know, they fall short.

And so the creation of this refugee seeker malaise is now set in the national mind. Howard, in refusing entry of the Tampa, showed 'leadership and strength'. The attacks that came a month later confirmed the worst fears of the most exclusionist elements in the country, not to mention a bunch of more moderate minds who suddenly preferenced the safety of their nearest above that of distant others, especially those from the places who also bred those who crashed those planes. And didn't the government run with it?

In 2011, the more things change the more they etc. And we might blame a decade of Coalition bleating and cruelty for the refugee situation, should we be that way inclined (the bleeding heart brigade, us). But now, if we're to look for a reason as to why we're still having this conversation, this ludicrous 'debate' filled with such Orwellian black-hilarity (the queue-jumpers when there is no queue, the use of the word ‘illegal’, the whole thing about boatfolk being vastly overwhelmed in number by planefolk, so on), we should look one K. Rudd in the eye, and ask the big questions.

All the talk of the Rudd return these past few days (and Annabel Crabb, as is her custom, has written a first rate piece about that here) has reminded us of the 'bond he had/has with the Australian people'. Seems true, even now. We've moved on from the very real discomfort we were feeling at the start of 2010, as his weasel words and annoying affectations began to grate with the national ear, before he lost us with the back-down on that great moral challenge (as Hartcher pointed out quite well, Rudd's appeal was that he acted as a moralist- hence, a conviction guy). He believed in stuff. So it seemed. So when he ditched the ETS because the polls were quivering (ever so slightly at that point, barely a ripple), so went the morality, so went the conviction. And what we saw was a mealy-mouthed nerd. A worse kind of nerd than Howard post Tampa.

Which makes Rudd's failures so so much worse. because he held the ear of the nation in 2007 and 2008, and had an opportunity to do the right thing- to put some facts into the game re asylum seekers. To explain that there was no such thing as a queue. That boatpeople consisted of 2% of the intake. That 93% of those detained at Nauru were eventually found to be legit (Yes, Rudd did use this line. But he used it in isolation, as a justification to close Nauru. Not as part of a bigger truth ceremony).

Rudd could have changed the circumstances of the debate with effective, real communications. In doing so he would've shone a different torch onto the Howard legacy. He would've crushed anyone associated with the Howard take on boatpeople (Mr Abbott included). He could have pointed out just how wrong, how inhumane that party and the commentariat who supported it, were. A little communication, some resolve, and you change the terms of the discussion.

But even when his approval rating ran at 70+%, Rudd moved carefully. He was the guy who kept buying his girl flowers and kept asking her if she loved him as much as he her. And she did for a while. But everyone will get tired of such a needy doofus who seems to exist only for the approval of another. Rudd lacked backbone. And we're all the worse for it. Gillard has done no better on refugees- indeed, the discussion is back where it was in August 2001. In an excellent piece Mungo Macallum calls it bullshit on both sides. For this continuing ugly mess that demeans all of us, Rudd must take a big slice of blame.

Game/s On?

2011-06-19T21:51:00.007+10:00

Lately, writers for the big dailies have been commenting and tweeting and occasionally filing copy which details the increasingly thin photo ops our leaders are conducting. The idea is that, when in Canberra for Question time, Abbott and Gillard will head to Queenbeyan (a short drive but a world away from the alienating visual of Canberra’s manicured streets) and end up in hi-vis, sprouting inanity.

Abbott has taken the biscuit, and the doily and the plate in recent days. On Tuesday he was infront of a roller door, stating that the carbon tax will 'bring down the door' on Australia and the future and babies and puppies. This came after the photo op on Monday where he awkwardly shoveled sand into a mixer and said something like 'the carbon tax will shovel the fuck out of the faces and heads of the elderly and kittens and baby seals'. Or something.

Via Fairfax

I look forward to the following, future photo ops.

Abbott in Fyshwick, setting off an illegal firework and saying- 'well, ah, the bang and fizz has gone right out of this government'

Abbott standing next to a homeless chap- 'well, ah, you might say that if the government keeps going the way its going, Julia Gillard might be in the market for a new home'

Abbott in Fyshwick, standing outside Adam & Eve (purveyors of quality marital aids)- well, ah, far from being immaculate-ly, ah, conceived, you might say that this government is, ah, fucked

What's amazing is that he, and the party, and its Labor counterparts, think this 101 mindlessness works. What's more amazing is that it does- either that, or the populace are so disengaged, so bored by this and the wider tone of debate, that these inexcusably banal events continue because the care factor is low. Whatever.

People do seem to care about Kevin though.

What a busy week he's had. And what interesting editorials we read in the weekend papers. Peter Hartcher's interview and assessment made it difficult to digest the breakfast brioche, filed with Rudd's carefully timed and properly weighted mea's culpa. Lenore Taylor put things into a calmer perspective. Jack Waterford still thinks we'll all be rooned. And I suspect the Australian called Julia a bitch, Bob Brown a dangerous commie poof terrorist and Abbott a man of great decency and wit and wisdom. Denis Shanahan is outstanding at bringing the lols. But I prefer my comedy to vaguely resemble reality- the punch-line carries more power that way.

What Rudd is doing well however, is PR. And this government is proving to be shockingly bad at PR.

Roxon has crashed this week, seeking cash from Big Tobacco and thus making her shrill schoolmarm chamber persona loose whatever gravitas it hinted at. Ludwig remains besieged thanks to inaction and a confusing lack of job awareness in the face of live exports. Bowen remains between his rock and the hard place (Malaysia), quoting Monty Python’s dark knight. Shorten is invisible, Swan remains the worst communicator to have held the Treasurers arm-band since Ralph Willis (meaning that Swanny can expect a Queens Birthday gong in 20 years, but little else beforehand), Combet has his hand forced by a rogue ad agency and had to announce the fact the government will shortly be announcing an ad campaign for a tax that doesn't exist yet, making momentary foes of Windsor and Oakeshott and making his first big error in the big game. And Gillard? Well. Where to start with a problem like Julia.

Way back when, a year or so ago, I wrote my last political post full of hope for Julia’s reign. And like many, I’m confused. It’s not just that she’s performed poorly, been unable to catch the public eye and project her more winning qualities. It’s the nature of the mistakes that confuse. The simple errors. Skill errors we Brumbies fans call them, the stuff you learn in juniors, the second-nature moves that we expect to be in place when you’re paid the big bucks to do it for a living. Policy-wise, this Government is stained by a feeling of inadequacy and incompetence. But more critical in these times of hi-vis photo ops and manta repetition, it's the smear of panic that is shocking to watch. All the pre-annoucements. The garbled explanations. The putzed programs. And the feeling that they're perpetually behind the 8-ball. Which is kinda the opposite of leadership.

Looking back at last years election blog (which broke my best blogging intentions a little) is tough. The final post is a little embarrassing. What a naif I was. A shining wee naif, full of hope and sunshine. What arse. And what an extraordinarily nullifying, mortifying bunch of months it has been since.

The opposition have been getting free hits through the year. That they not only remain in the game but look increasingly solid is an extraordinary thing, given that whenever they’ve looked to do anything apart from comment on how shithouse the government is, they’ve fallen in a heap. Abbott is a figure of fun. Hockey a proverbial balloonful of hot air. And Malcolm- he stirs, he circles, but he needs the government to have a good week so that his leader might stop feeling quite so in control. His time will come, but Malcolm is known to be a little ... premature on this front. Still, he could lead. And I wonder how many Labor people, true believers, are secretly excited in the prospect. At least Malcolm wouldn't be primping for the stupid photo ops.

We Have a Winner

2010-09-07T19:13:00.003+10:00

Where were you, when it all went down, the momentous, game, life and nation changing bits of this truly historic day? That's what it was, right? Truly historic. Sky News told me so. ABC24 did too. And Tony Windsor suggested it himself, in the presser that was probably the actual history changing moment itself, thus indulging in a little meta po-mo hi-jinx as a way of toasting his favourite novelist., David Foster Wallace*.

Me, I was in my office, about 120 metres away from where it happened. What a strange and actually magnificent space our Parliament House is. The visitor doesn't know the half of it. The grace and genius of the place lay in it's courtyards, the actually-soothing way the halls take you places, the detail and timber and colour and light. It's a building I wish the nation really knew and paid respects to, because it's a fucken marvel. However, it does tend to feel a bit empty. Even when there's a Prime Minister to be called.

I saw Bob Ellis in Aussies before 8, and he looked up from his vast mound of newspapers to see if I was someone important. It's a strangely disheartening feeling, turning a corner or entering a room and having the nations press and the press' hangers-on look up, poised to pounce if you're a man of newsworthiness, only to turn their gaze once they recognise you as a nobody. Fran Kelly did it to me later, as did Michelle Gratton at morning tea. Never mind. I work for the building, for the flow of process, and its my job to keep the head down. It's a good job in a good place. And today was a good day.

The morning was all speculation. News came that Oakeshott met Abbott six times yesterday. That was a worry. As was news that Abbott was sighted sporting a huge grin the Parliament car park. That filled a lot of airtime. As did a lot of experts, who spoke a lot of what they didn't know. Then the SMH broke it.

Brilliantly, Fairfax snapper Nicholas Walker nabbed these shots, and it came to pass that this was the script from which Oakeshott read (more on the more that our Rob plated up later...). The supporting text indicates the number 77 crossed out, with 76-74 underneath, alongside the name Ted Mack, and a few other key bits. Soon after this story hit the webs, Katter called the press to his office, and led them and us through one of the strangest conferences ever heard. He meandered. He squawked. He berated. He did it all bar jumping on the table and taking a dump into his hat. He said that he was supporting the Coalition and the tweeting classes assumed this was because the others were going Labor. Bob was sorting his deck. Kinda. Cos he later said that if his mates were going the other way (of course, he didn't know which way they were headed! Of course! Hence the solo presser!) he might support Labor too. It depends. On bananas or flying foxes or somesuch. So it went. A Bob each way.

And then, and then, the moment arrived. Windsor was brief but thorough, announcing his support for Gillard, and we knew, because they weren't going to play their cards and then force anther election, thereby associating with a party and losing all their bargaining chips. But Oakeshott saw a spotlight and demanded it for a little longer. A little too long. 26 minutes later he too had announced his support, but he lost a lot of goodwill in the press core.

Either way it was done, and our returned Prime Minister spoke humbly and well. Abbott did so too, although he probably didn't need the third and fourth reference to winning both the popular vote and more seats. Still, he showed more grace than Bob Baldwin and Barry O'Farrell, who tweeted 'To think Windsor & Oakeshott were going to vote any other way was a folly, the 17 days was nothing more than grandstanding to say the least' and 'so clear proof that a vote for Independents and The Greens is a vote for Labor' respectively. Way to stay classy, losers (you'll have your turn Barry, cool them big heels). Just like that, 2 months, 17 days of extra time later, it was done. It'l be a rough ride. But Gillard is the one you want in this game.

The questions and blood letting and associated difficulties will start soon. Arbib and Shorten are time bombs. Rudd's ministry will be tough to sort. The continuing strength of Conroy might be a problem. But Gillard, if she has her way, can do plenty of good. She'll need to pull the finger out on Climate Change, but the deal with the Greens will assist that. And she'll know that Labor won't overthrow another PM anytime soon.

WHAT JULIA NEEDS TO DO
1. Not get married. That'd be a sideshow. Stay de-facto. Bring the nation to an understanding that a woman doesn't need to be married, a mother, or god-fearing to be formidable.
2. Sort climate change action, and get gay marriage on the table. In order to do so, shift the Labor rule and
3. Allow conscience votes in the Labor party. It'll be a shitfight, but it is one the people want in their Government. We want human beings and we want heart, and debates of this type, even if the result goes the 'wrong' way, will hearten the people.
4. Go to every Dogs home game. Be a fixture of the people, every week where it's possible. I wouldn't ask this of Keating or Rudd, but she believes in the Dogs, so make it real and let the people see you, Prime Minister, in red and blue each weekend. We want a person, not a machine, in case that whole Kevin-thing had been forgotten.
5. Get this boat thing sorted. Detail the scenario. Explain why we're not 'under threat'. Fucks sake, it's a long way overdue. Maybe do so by bringing those involved in the criminal dealings surrounding Tampa to a court. That means Liberal ministers of 2001. Let it happen.
and
5. Slowly but surely remind us what the Labor party is for. What discriminates it from the other lot. It'll have to be a steady process in this hung parliament, but it must, must occur. We don't need another party of the centre right. We need a party that explains why Trade unions can be great. Why safety nets are actually critical. Why the cult of the individual is a soulless, brutal trap that renders us, collectively and ironically, individually, less satisfied and less useful. This country needs a little taste of duty to something bigger again. Start that conversation, by reminding us Labor leaners that it is a party worth believing in, worth working for.

It's a good day. And I predict it'll last. And Labor will win in 2013 with a decent majority. And Gillard will be known as one of our best Prime Ministers. Mark my words.

* Might be a bit of a stretch, that. He's probably more of a Don DeLillo kinda guy.

The night before the night before repeat...

2010-09-06T21:34:00.001+10:00

So I went on holidays, and thought better of updating this electronic gurgle- I lounged, I restored my horribly pallid complexion to something less cadaver-esque, I read two 'important' books of the moment (Easton Ellis' 'Imperial Bedrooms' left me a bit, you know? Like Less than Zero, that perfect affectedly unaffected first-person style was actually beginners luck, and the longer his career continues the more he is removed, through time and through trying, from what made him essential. Not that it's a bad book... It's more that there is a better book in there, somewhere. Whereas Franzen's 'Freedom' is just as good as the mounting pile of breathless adoration suggests, until the bird watching and eco-intrigue stuff starts, and I started to think that the grace and effortless 'summing-up' that had sent the previous several hundred pages past this reader so enjoyably got caught up in the now, in the 'I-am-saying-important-things-about-now'-ness of these latter sections that dragged a little. But it comes home strong and you should read it. On holidays. Away from Canberra.)


Just a few more days, then we'll get our own show. Or an X Factor judging slot.	Via News

In Canberra, the musketeers talked, and talked some more, and generally annoyed the nation. But luckily (for them), they weren't the story, for Abbott's 'black hole/misunderstanding' hogged a lot of column inches. And with that, the papers pretty well called it. The Australian even, bouncing back from a new low of calling the Greens/Labor alliance something like the worst thing to happen to humankind since plague, lent toward the incumbent after Abbott, Hockey and Robb's late week shocker. The Lib's had a 'bad week.' But, as many pointed out, this is not the campaign, and a bad week in general play means little here. They still need only to appeal to an audience of three.

Those editorials in all the major dailies have handed it to Labor, but the longer this has gone on, the more we should distrust anything we've read. Including these words here. All of them. The time the three are taking might indeed be due to a thorough process set in train last week. It might be due to a sense of covering all angles, giving the situation appropriate weight. Or it might be thanks to the situation looking like one where it would be now very difficult to back the Coalition due to the numbers and thanks to the vast, actually quite extraordinary misplacing of a lazy 7-to-11 billion shmackers, but want to, and hence are feeding the Tories enough rope. Maybe. We'll know tomorrow apparently, It will all be over. And then something else, probably something even more dramatic, will be begin.

9 & 10, Again Again!

2010-08-31T23:18:00.001+10:00

I have so much to tell you. Really. Soon this blog will launch again, relaunch 8.0, with all the stuff I want to write about. A series of Canberra restaurant reviews, aimed at inviting local chefs to hunt me down (they're not very complimentary. And yet, factually correct). A series called 'How to make -insert film title, say, Inception, or the Ghost Writer- Better', where I will guide the reader through a collection of simple steps to improve filmic fare. Oh yes. Not to mention a bunch of record reviews and breathless missives on football. Exciting stuff I know. But today, it's about two party business.

Gillard took the largest breath of relief around midday today, when the two party count again tilted her way. Before that, thanks to some AEC gymnastics, the Coalition snuck ahead. Fact is, they won't have final figures for some time, and they probably won't be terribly different to what they were before the AEC re-jigged the methods (Labor just pulling ahead). It's a long story as to why, and there are better people than me to explain the whole bit, but the point is that Gillard dodged an awkward one at lunch.

Via ABC.

Her address was fine- it was measured and contained words and her ninja hands didn't go too crazy, but the point, the motivation, was missing. It was a speech for an audience of four, masquerading as an address for all of us. As Annabel Crabb noted, she only really shone when she got miffed. Can we have her, after all this is done, the one with some heart and wit? Can the independents put that on the wish list?

In the meantime, Abbott told his cabinet, in a horribly stage managed pow-wow, that they were a Government in waiting. Hubris, my little cycling amigo, careful with the hubris.

Bored Bored Bored 7 & 8

2010-08-29T21:15:00.002+10:00

Just one of the lovely folk at the Beck rally. Via Gawker.

There's plenty happening in the world. Pakistan provides an opportunity to test the Susan Sontag theory of compassion fatigue (otherwise known as a gentler reading of a lazy response to an immense, impossible to understand tragedy that actually might have something more to do with a kind of racism based on associating that nation with the 'terror' the west has been fighting all these last 9 years), while Glenn Beck mobilises the conservatives on the steps on the Lincoln Memorial 47 years after a somewhat more articulate and reasonable man mobilised the nation, and world, only 2 rungs higher on the same staircase. UK Labo(u)r move toward their next leader, the Tour of Spain has kicked off, and Carlton made the finals. Just. Plenty going on in the world, plenty to talk about aside from Australian politics.

Surely.

Alby Shultz has been on the phone to the independents to strong-arm their decision. Clever. Neilson have polled the nation re a republic (answer- no. Not now), while News and Galaxy have been polling the independents, twice this week, just to inform said indies that their electorates want a Coalition Government. See what they did there? Clever. On the front page of the Australian, the header reads 'Majority of Independents constituents back the Coalition'. The story continues inside, with the linking header 'Gillard flags Green alliance as Independents back Abbott.' Ha! See what they did there? Super clever. I guess they could drop the type back a size and include the word 'constituents' to be, like, fair. Whatever. Tony Windsor was quite rational on this matter this morning, and one expects that he'll remain so. But pressure mounts. From Murdoch, and from elsewhere.

Tony Abmaster is keen, apparently, to be PM. He appeared on Insiders, and was his usual, fluent, reasonable, balanced self.

BARRIE CASSIDY: Tony Abbott, good morning, welcome.

TONY ABBOTT: Morning Barrie.

BARRIE CASSIDY: What are you going to do about Alby Schultz?

TONY ABBOTT: Well Barrie look I'll come to Alby in a sec. But the bottom line is last weekend's election produced half a million more votes for the Coalition than for the Labor Party. And under those circumstances it defies commonsense that a corrupted Labor Government should be put back into power...

BARRIE CASSIDY: Well just before we go to Alby Schultz, on that point though surely we have a preferential system and you lost on the two party preferred vote?

TONY ABBOTT: Well but the bottom line is that the corrupted machine politics which got rid of Kevin Rudd has been totally discredited by this election. And the last thing we should see is this election putting back into power the same kind of faceless powerbrokers that have been utterly discredited and rightly discredited by this election result.

What a repulsive fucken bore.Getting to the message huh! Machine politics indeed. Focus grouped and wrapped in an inane paragraph. Repeat the central four lines. Critiscise the other side for exactly what both sides do. Repeat. Repeat.

A word on this 'machine politics' line. The Labor party is a machine. yes. But the Liberal party is a machine also. As are the Greens. As is the Sex Party. It's a smaller machine, but a machine nonetheless. All organisations are machines. Come on!

However, the reason that Labor has the tag is thanks to Bitar and Arbib, and a piece in yesterdays Australian (yep, with the requisite slant, but a worthwhile piece nonetheless) laid the NSW Labor Right bare. It brings up a worthwhile question- if Labor do form Government (and then win 2013 with a 4-6 seat majority, as Peter van Oslen perhaps amusingly called on Friday's 'Contrarians' program on Sky), will they lose the important opportunity to restructure their broken, and problematic for the nation, system?

See, another question worth asking is-what is the point of Labor right now? In the vacuum of loss between 1996 and 2007, instead of the party galvanising on the basis of ideology and commitment, it became an operation skilled at winning and maintaining state Governments. Each of the big three (Carr's NSW, Bracks & Brumby's VIC and Beattie & Bligh's QLD) looked like getting rolled, and pulled off quite stunning victories. Recent ACT, SA, TAS & NT Labor governments have stumbled and had to form minority Governments. But they've held on. And how? Through a strong set of ideas? No. Through good politicking. And by christ it is boring.

So where are we? same place we've been, same place we'll be till the end of the week we assume. Labor 72 (or 73 including Adam Bandt), LNP 72 (or 73 if you include the rogue National, who will oppose a mining tax but will sit on the crossbenchs), 4/5/6 'other'. Either way you cut it, it's tied up, with four men calling the card. One of whom (Wilkie), doesn't really want to, and three who remain keen to do so. Ideally before they piss everyone off.

Time after time 6- Level the playing fielding

2010-08-27T22:44:00.000+10:00

Hey, departing Senator Steve Fielding. The budget for the financial year has already passed. So, on the advice of Anthony Green, you can't block supply. In light of that, and your latest, pathetic stunt, the nation says oh-do-fuck-off. The new senate cannot come soon enough.

Nobody wants to listen to little Stevie no more. Via Fairfax.

More to come tomorrow!

End times 5- Tony Tony Tony!!!

2010-08-26T16:29:00.001+10:00

Karl Bitar made the beginners mistake on the final, kinda underwhelming episode of the Chaser's Yes We Canberra last night- he ran. He was caught, pathetically, trying to slam the door on Reucassel, refusing to smile and play and nod and agree as per the memo he himself probably handed out to his colleagues should they get jumped. Bitar might've otherwise had a good night. Because the strategy we assume he had put in place (stay small and wait for an Abbot implosion) seemed to come true, a little late, but perhaps not too late. Last nights press conference and the stories of the day since have put the burners on the Coalition.

Tony- what crazy lurk beneath? Via Fairfax

It was a classic, withering, stuttering, aggressive performance from the man who might. Abbott seems to be fuelled by expectancy at the moment. While Gillard happily acquiesces, Abbott is pulling on the gloves. But he's picking a problematic fight, as the Independents have affirmed today. Katter squeaks 'what is he hiding'. Windsor suggests it's not off to a good start. Oakeshott has been quiet. And Andrew Robb has been dished out (not Abbott, not Hockey, which I guess if fair enough if you want to avoid putting kero on a flame), speaking about the criminal act of the leak during the campaign. It won't work.

Abbott knows it's a tough play, but as several editorials have noted, it's a calculated move. Remember in Donnie Brasco when Johnny Depp, undercover cop wearing a wire in his boot, beats the crap out of the Japanese waiter who asks him to remove his shoes before entering the restaurant as per the custom? That's what this is. The figures won't work. And Abbott knows that with three seats still in play, two of which are a likely win, he has to beat the crap out of the waiter lest he get found out and have everything fall in. If he gets his 73rd, that's his leverage. If it goes on and becomes a mess, with the constituents of the gang of three requesting a Lib Gov and the national interest turning to annoyance at these three kingmakers, then maybe we have another poll, and Abbott backs himself in such an environment. I'm not sure if that's right (expect part of that Greenslide to turn red if we go again) but that's what he's got.

In the meantime, BobKat is going global. A viral megamix isn't far away I'm sure.

Hammer time 4- Let's no longer even pretend

2010-08-25T22:13:00.001+10:00

Pretend to know what in hell is going on I mean.


Wise men or stooges? Via Fairfax

Here's what seemed to happen. The three independents had a chat, or as BobKat might say, a yarn, or a chin-thump, or a begdraggle, or a fist-o-schmuck, or whatever collection of sounds first come into his plus-size head, and they came up with a plan. They then strode to a courtyard on a pathetically cold Canberra day and laid it all out. They've written a seven point plan. They want to see everything, speak to everyone, and figure who is full of it and who is marginally less full of it. They then went to the press club to speak on this and wider issues. They were joined by Adam Bandt, who is experiencing the biggest rollercoaster intro to Australian politics in some time. He was right to look scared of BobKat, who mixed pure sense with heartfelt rural conservatism and then some really loud shouting.

The issues seem to be- friendliness, being nice, being open to crazy stuff, red team mixing with blue team making purple people eating team, so on. And access to everything. Everything. Including treasury costings, which apparently made Mr Abbott rather tense on Sky News this evening. I was watching Kerry O'B, but the twittering classes made many notes of Abbott's proclamation that public servants aren't to be handling important information like Treasury costing stuff. Forgetting that Treasury is full of public servants. Who balance the books. Unlike, we suspect, Mr Abbott and his shady finance posse who should've been hammered in the final week of the campaign.

All the sounds the independents are making sound like Labor-preferencing sounds, but big obstacles lurk- the conservative electorates from which they've emerged front and centre. But Gillard did well in her press call and agreed to all the demands. Now the three head home, returning to Canberra next week. And the nation, energised by possibility and the strangeness of the situation, are forced to wait some more. There is, I suggest, a window for conversation and change. But it won't be open long. The question is how patient will the nation be, and might they turn on these three, soon to four, and maybe five (the Tuckey-crushing National now considers himself a cross-bencher). As the count goes on, the focus will wane, and then what?

UPDATE 10:45
Ok- so you know how Karl Bitar and Labor were waiting and hoping for Abbott to make that Abbott error, the one where he spits it? Seems that presser mentioned above was far more critical than I thought. A game changer perhaps. Tony won't have Treasury access the books. Because? For, as BobKat said on Lateline, he looks pretty bad. Pretty bad indeed. Like he's hiding something. Or he wants another election. Not a smart move. As Arch Bevis storms home in Brisbane (and with Hasluck pretty well gone), that's Labor 73 (+ Adam Bandt), LNP 72 (- Tony Crook, maybe), 4 ind. It's all gotta go Labor's way, but Abbott is doing his best to help.

Injury Time 3- The Hokey-Pokey (With Bob & Oakey)

2010-08-24T22:03:00.001+10:00


No need to be afraid Australia. Really. Via ABC

As the BobKat touched down in Canberra and held a fruity presser confirming many people's belief that the guy is first rate bonkers, the playing field up and tilted. Denison, after all that, may well go to the super-spy, while Corangamite, the hilariously monikered Victorian seat, slipped from the ALP's desperate paw back into contention. Brisbane remains a possible, and as always, Hasluck is the key. Except for the other keys. And any other on top of those, should a recount indicate that a bunch of ballots were stuck together, or left in the rain, or on top of the car, or down the back of the couch. The point? We're going to postals. Like going to penalties I guess, just less entertaining.

At the start of the day it was mathematically possible for Labor, should the gods smile (and why would they, but...), to call 75 seats their own. As the day closed, they were looking for a 73rd, 73 giving them a shot at vague legitimacy. While the three independents did the rounds and spoke of the nation, the national interest, a nicer gentler kinder polity, rural Australia, communications and health and education and all they want to see in this, their brief but potentially powerful week in the sun, the fact remains that without 73 Labor haven't got a shot.

Abbott knows this, and looked edgy at his press call today. The commentators didn't write about it, but I was struck by an ever so subtle bullying tone in Tone. It was the campaign again, full of terms that, if I were one of the three (or four) independents, would piss me well off. These chaps will not be told. And maybe it'll all, every last bit of it, come down to numbers and the not the conversations with the leaders planned for tomorrow. But for the moment, they want to suck the air in, and being told who is capable and stable (it remains the buzzword) won't do it. Neither side can prove it. Both sides can only continue praying. At least one of them is a believer.

Tardis time 2- Howes Young?

2010-08-23T21:39:00.000+10:00

The most amazing thing about this evening's Australian Story? The bombshell that Paul Howes, the faceless man who appears on every TV program even hinting at politics spouting words with a cadence that worries those of us who dislike toss and focus-grouped weaselisms, is 28 years old. 28!

Paul Howes, with and without face. He is not an animal.

The wisdom of Howes' appearance on the program will be added to speculation on the wider Labor movement and its immediate health. One assumes that the profile was aimed at fleshing the human, putting a face on the faceless, and humanising the tough union thug. He was, we learnt, once homeless. He wept for the Beaconsfield miners. He is a, quote-unquote, 'decent bloke'. And Bill Shorten, tellingly, said that it made good sense to hire smarter people than yourself- so he hired Howes. Uh-huh.

Shorten, we were told in the SMH, is the most likely next leader of the ALP. The bookies have his odds 'shortest' (sorry), and the bookies are never wrong. Except for the weekend just gone. Of course, the problem is that, regardless of whether Labor forms a Government, Howes, Shorten, Arbib and Bitar smell. Morris Iemma will tell you so. As will Maxine, as will any number of folk desperate to launch on how Labor have arrived at this place. Gag orders have been issued, as looking like mates is critical to having a hope of forming a 'stable' Government (Stable is the new sustainable). But it'll come out. It will all be spilt.

The LNP isn't entirely rosy either- the Nats are a loud lot, and their relationships with the three independents will make discussions fruity. Seats are dropping in and out of contention. At this moment it looks like Denison will not be taken by the superspy, and Labor remain confident of winning Hasluck. The money is on 73-73, 3 ind, 1 Grn. And the bookies are never wrong are they?

Now all there is to do is settle in for Q&A. Without Mark Arbib, who has been pulled from the show at his leaders request. A good thing it is too. Some faceless men should remain exactly that, with no mouths to make sound with.

Anti-time 1- The Gloaming

2010-08-22T18:54:00.005+10:00

WAYS TO WIN ELECTION 2013*
Assuming we don't have another one shortly...

All candidates from this point on will have to campaign for 36 hours straight on the final days. This indicates that you 'really want it'. It being the job, the Prime Minister thing.

WAYS TO LOSE, OR COURT SERIOUS TROUBLE
These are surefire, btw.

Via News.

Roll your leader during the term, if it's the first term. Also:
Roll your leader, then adopt a mousy voice and say 'look, everythings still ok!'
Promise everything, use terms like 'root and branch' and 'greatest moral challenge' then do fuck all.
Promise little, and look like struggling at even delivering that.
Have state Governments that share your name that suck, hard.
Take advice from fucktards, like Arbib, like Howes, so on.
Have a bunch of leaks from the leader you rolled during the campaign.

GREENAGE
So were the Greens the real winners of Indecsion 10 (formerly Enforced Decision 2010)?

The ABC's graphics, when indicating the swing to the Greens (+3.4), reflected something about an eighth of the size of the LNP swing bar (their swing was 1.4). Many find it all a bit tough to take seriously. Maybe that's because Bob Brown used his tally room floor speech to dreamily inform Australia that days ago a baby whale was born in the Derwent. Maybe. And maybe the Greens can only take support from Labor. Maybe they'll never be mainstream mainstream. Maybe everything would be different if they supported the (flawed) ETS, in that we'd have one, we'd have a Labor PM this morning and his name would be Kevin.

See, maybe if Labor hadn't been so gutless on the ETS, this result would be significantly different for the Greens. And yet, to believe that you must believe that this nation, conveniently, falls into two camps every three or so years, and regardless of variation (sometimes from the Democrats, or One Nation, or indeed Green), there is a loose centre left that spins outwards, and a centre right that does the same. More often than not that centre right gets the gong, but so on etc. Are we that simple? Does two party matter so much?

Julia thinks so. At her afternoon presser she speaks of having the moral high ground, as Labor leads the two-party count. Abbott says they have said high ground, as they have received more primary votes. So it will go for some time.

Opinion is mixed is who is more likely to form a Government- more lean toward a Gillard Labor govt, as Labor seem likely to win 73, maybe 74 seats (Andrew Wilkie is not assured of a win apparently), therefore needing the Green and two/three indies. It would appear that the LNP can only win 73 seats but look likely to only win 72, meaning they'll need all the independents and some luck. Said independents have been making noises on broadband and climate change. We still suspect they'll vote as a bloc. And don't they hate Barnaby? It all seems to points one way. And yet- and yet. It's easy enough to see the result as a rejection of the Government. And that can turn a mans mind can it not?

INDEPENDENCEY

If nothing else, these three make an interesting break from the political talking heads in this country. I hear nothing much aside from the word 'decent' being ascribed to both Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, and as tonight's special Sunday 7.30 again proved, Bob Katter makes for compelling viewing. I didn't understand a lot of what he said. He did use the term 'paradigm' on three occasions, which is nice- haven't heard that word so liberally applied since a first year Ethics class a while back. BobKat also spoke of sugar, of hating Barnaby, and having a fairly decent 'bulldust metre'. The rest, I dunno. But it was a brilliant stroke from the ABC to shoot him against a streetscape and Katter clearly knew how to fill the frame, arms crossed, serious suit, his white bonce glimmering in the Queensland evening. Their time has come, and they all seem to be up for it.

So, in extra time section 1, it's about Hasluck. Without it, Labor seem to finish on 72. Most are giving Denison to Wilkie, although I understand there's some conjecture on that front. But Brisbane has again slipped beyond Labor, meaning it's all about the postals in Hasluck. And Labor folk are quietly confident of hitting the front and staying there after a solid postal campaign. With it, and with 73, Labor seem to have the authority. Abbott will suggest that Labor does not have such authority, but big swings and overwhelming the low expectations aside, there is the tough fact that the nation didn't exactly embrace him either. Either way, we won't know for up to a week says Antony Green. What a strange anti-climax- it's almost offensive. But there's a process at work, one assumes, and as it goes process itself is being assessed and questioned. And annoyingly, I feel compelled to continue doing so here. I'd love to resume normal life, actually get some work done, so on, but I, like those three indies, will wrap myself in the national flag and tap away, bringing further inanity to you as it happens. Sit tight Australia.

Day 36/ Day Zero- Love your democracy, no matter...

2010-08-21T18:33:00.005+10:00

Oh how I love me this day. How I love the taste of the sausage from the Lyneham Primary School fete. It's the taste of democracy. How I love politely but pointedly refusing particular how to vote cards (a subtle roll of the eyeball and a semi- subdued snort, a 'do I look like a pathetic creep? I think not, fucktard' But nicely, mind...). And how I love my little city on these days- engaged, chuckling, switched-on. A kid behind me, surely no more than 5, says, loud and proud, 'I'm not voting for Tony Rabbit- he looks.... wrong. And his ears are too big.' Then a pause, while he waits for his audience to stop chuckling, before he adds 'If Juuuuuuliah doesn't get any votes, does that mean that it's game off?'. Who cares if he's been schooled by his folks to plant such messages. I love me some Canberra on election day.

Gillard has stolen Nicola Roxon's child to help her chances. Via ABC.

The day started well for me- news of a favoured artiste releasing a new EP, through the power and wonder of the internets. That, followed by a listen, a vote, some folks and coffee and some reading. What a decent little place we have here, I might've thought, if I could shake the feeling that everything might be different on Sunday. But the mood was not one of change. It'd be tight, but it'd be a win for Labor.

The weekend papers contained some points of interest. In the SMH, a small sidebar noted an editorial written for the Thursday Australian suggested Australia vote Labor. Then they received the Newspoll, 50-50, and they re-wrote it, supporting the LNP. Murdoch's Aus don't want to be seen backing a Labor loser. Much more comfortable with a tory loss. Meanwhile, Richo wrote a column in the Aus noting the leaks, and how he has no proof that it was Rudd's fault, but Rudd was wrong to leak that stuff and his staffer, not that he's saying Rudd or his staff had anything to do with it, but his staffer who leaked it should take a long holiday very far away.

Some hot chicks with a gay, churchy loser. Via News

There was news of Labor campaign helpers in Penrith, David Bradbury's seat which is apparently under immediate threat from boat people, wearing shirts sans any kind of Labor branding, in the same blue as the Libs. Abbott got on the radio to speak of the disgusting deception at play. Sadly the ABC didn't carry any reportage of reports that Lib helpers in Queensland were wearing Green t shirts, which read 'Voting Green?'. I guess the question mark made it clear, and not at all deceitful.

The ABC, when it came round to 6pm, continued this slant. Kerry spoke of dismay and collapse. Uhlmann spoke of panic and trouble. Nick Minchin spoke with a big smug face. What gives ABC? The exit polls say 51, 52 ALP. Not convincing, but slanted one way. Just like the betting- at 6, it was around $1.39 ALP, $2.42 LNP. Follow the money they say. We wait.

UPDATE 9:04
Jesus- are y'all fucken kidding me? It looks hung. With Andrew Wilkie?! Whistleblowin' Wilkie?!! Amazing...

UPDATE 10:31
It's hung- no way past it now, unless some extraordinary twists occur. Four independents, one Green. So how does it fall? Is it based on two-party, or primary vote numbers? Is it via the old school rule of the incumbent having first crack at forming a gov, then handballing to the Opp if they can't come to an agreement? Or is it formed, as suggested by Bob Katter moments ago on the tele, that it'll come down to whoever allows rural Australia to florish- i.e. not on the national interest, but the primary interest of one, or five candidates?

The fact that there are three ex Nats suggests a slanting toward the Libs, but they are ex Nats for a reason. Because they disagreed with something critical in that party machine. The Green, and Andrew Wilkie (!), would side with the ALP, one would assume. But who knows.

Right now, Tony Windsor is calling for calm mediation on the issue. Will Australia cope without a Government for these next few days? Will the streets burn?

Now Rob Oakeshott is talking about getting a decent phoneline up- 'you don't have to be Einstein to see that's a big issue'. Calls it a stimulus package for democracy. He might have a point there...

In the meantime, Julia has yet to appear in the vast Melbourne Convention Centre party. She's apparently, says Steve Bracks, 'doing ok'.

UPDATE 11:35
Ok. Numbers are sliding back and forth. Labor may win Brisbane after all, but Hasluck looks gone, Boothby unlikely, and Denison, the potential win for superspy Wilkie, up in the air. Gillard's speech was a good one- one that would've gone down well in tone and intent during the campaign. Real Julia indeed.

While we wait for Abbott to speak, some possibilities:
ALP 73- LNP 72 IND 4 Grn 1. Add the Green and the spy to the ALP and the 3 Nats to the LNP and we have 75-75. So, another election?
Or
ALP 72- LNP 72, with the independents somehow heading toward the ALP. Which would look a little unstable.
Or
ALP 74- LNP 72 IND 3 Grn 1 (there being a chance that Wilkie might not get up- it's all about a weird preference share). Hard for the independents to go with anyone but Labor. Unless they suggest we go to the polls again. But if we go again and get a similar result, what then? And then, what then?

There's one thing for it- splash blame around.

Put simply, Abbott has put in a blinder to even be in the game. The Libs have done well to fall behind him. 'People skills' has proved himself far more adept at the process than Labor clearly thought.

The key point, maybe, is that on top of all the palava regarding the changeover, is that the Labor campaign has been a fucken shambles. Outside of the leaks, this campaign aimed low and came up shorter. The debate debate, the slogan, the idea of making this about 'risk', and jobs and broadband, instead of the economy's strength, the wins of the parties first term, was insane. Stephen Smith has just said in his usual magnificent measured tones, that the avoiding of recession is an abstract notion- it's tough to sell what we don't have. But it's more than that. It's the Real Julia factor. It's the ugly cash spill in Western Sydney. It's been a pathetic Labor campaign. Karl Bitar, architect thereof, should be reconsidering his options.

At 11:46, Abbott emerges through the scrum. He's feted like a winner. I guess, considering the form, the expectations, he is. He is flanked by his ladies (see? He's a normal family guy! Married! With kids! Hello Australia!). It's a night for pride, satisfaction, and measured reflection he says. There should be no premature triumphalism. Just a great night for the Australian people. I feel humbled, he says. He's flirting with hubris. He offers some thanks. His kids look mortified. Fearful. And tall. He is so proud of the first Indigenous Member of Reps. Yep. He acknowledges his opponent. Not well. And again says its a win for us. The Australian people (How do you figure that, champ?). What is clear, he says, is that Labor have lost their majority. And that the Government has lost its legitimacy. And a Govt who couldn't govern with a majority of 17 can't govern in a minority. Ouch. Then he gets his slogan on. The people have rejected factionalism. He's going on. And looking like a winner. The coalition, he says, is back in business. Stable, predictable, competent government. A final shout out to family, and the people of Warringah. At 12:00 he's gone.

Maxine is gone. Wilson Tuckey is gone. Steve Fielding is gone. And the count goes on.

Day 35- And what have we learnt, Australia?

2010-08-20T09:40:00.006+10:00

This morning everyone's talking about the Newspoll (2 party 50-50, with another installment in tomorrow's paper) and the Galaxy poll (52-48 to the ALP), and they're saying the same thing. It's close. Too close to call even! Many predict a close Labor victory, then qualify that with a second chance option of a hung parliament, with Labor returned via Green support (assuming Melbourne will fall Green). Oh it's close. Said closeness is reflected in the Labor poll that dropped, mysteriously, to all radio and TV and papers yesterday. And the popular mail on that 'leak' is: Labor want you to know it's close (have I mentioned how close it is?). So they're pointing out how a casual Labor voter, assuming Labor will sneak in and giving the Libs a protest vote, just a light kick in the ass, might lose the whole shebang for the party they ostensibly support. So, the leaked poll says, your protest vote could have disastrous consequences. Disastrous!

It's a close run thing. It's in the marginals. It's the same thing we've been saying and reading since the leaks of week two crushed Labor's primary vote and exposed a party in all states of crazy. What have we learnt then? Why is it so close? How has it come to this?

Let's go back in time.....

Remember the week of the coup? It was the assumed final sitting week of the 42nd Parliament, with two stories leading the reportage- that an election would be called shortly, probably for October 23 or 30, and that there was chatter of a party room rolling of PM Rudd. Rudd was polling around 51, 52 two-party. A huge drop for a man without friends in the caucus. It was assumed that something might happen on the Monday of that week. And on that Monday, Rudd had a party room meeting and nothing happened. The pundits said-ok, no coup. He's survived. Rudd had a good day on Monday, and on the Tuesday. He was effective in the Parliament. And yet, it was a classic fake- a pysche from Arbib and Howes and the NSW right. On the Wednesday night it went mental, and on Thursday we woke with a new PM. Gillard took the photo ops and spoke well. She was brilliant in Question Time, which I attended in person, getting in ahead of maybe 500 people who were left outside the chamber, keen to see the history.

Thing is, the history was already tainted. Did anyone expect such a touching, human speech from a man widely known as the Ruddbott? Did anyone expect him to show up, on the backbench, in QT? And did Labor realise the sheer carnage that this decision would cause?

After the ructions of Hawke/Keating and the damage of the Howard/Costello 'partnerships', there seemed to be a thought that getting these things done, ripping the band-aid off, was the new way forward. These being accelerated times and all. But for that to work, everything had to go well for Labor. And it has not. Clearly.

Labor's problem has been threefold. Firstly, a Prime Minister was elected on a wave of goodwill, with excitement. The nation, we were told, had changed. We had recognised that the ambient soul of the nation, the stuff that doesn't pop up in polling and rational, scientific assessment, had been tainted by the Howard era. And here was a man with a desire to keep the books steady whilst re-establishing a kinder place. Rudd had the mandate. And Rudd didn't make it work. It was Climate Change primarily, but it was an inability to be seen to be working on the difficult pledges, the leadership questions. He had a chance to reframe the immigration question and did not. He didn't follow through on the 'root and branch' tax reform paper to a level that justified the effort and the noise of that review. He became a figurehead for weasel words. he was just as dull as his predecessor, but without the conviction. And conviction became the key word, strangely. Suddenly it was more important to believe in something, in anything, regardless.

Secondly, that dislike of Rudd did not translate into an understanding of why he was no longer Prime Minister. In this presidential style of campaigning, the nation somehow feel that they voted for Rudd. They never did of course- they voted for Labor. But Labor's story was Rudd's story, and without that leader explaining why he had done what he had, and had not done, they became Rudderless (ahem).

And thirdly, the campaign has not engaged. It has pushed people further away from political process. The election for marginals has never been so obvious. And since Labor has not stuck its neck out, has not lead and sought to convince, it looks lame. It needed to sell its victories- and it has had several. Many have expressed amazement at a place in the economic shape this place is even thinking of turfing a first term Government. But that story is tainted by pink batts and expensive school halls. Labor wedged itself in getting rid of a toxic leader.

More than all that though, is what this says about us, here and now. Is it just me, or is there a feeling that Tony Blair could pay in the not too distant future for his work post 2001? Not just through Polanski films, but through the people of Britain. They seem disgusted by that period in their nations life. Bush will escape serious scrutiny, as Kissenger has before him, but Blair might have some hard days in European courts soon. And our country is associated. The early noughties (what a horrible term btw) seem to be a time we're still to make full sense of. But certainly something in this place changed. Howard, in seeing a political opportunity in Tampa and making a policy in light of that that stemmed a year of terrible polls and gave him another term in office, shifted the nation not just to the right, but to somewhere less engaged and connected to itself, to notions of community. This isn't simply a cry from the left, but a recognition of how we seem to regard each other, how we live, what we do with our time. Social capitalism had won. Duty to nation and community had been usurped in favour of spending, of protecting one's investment, one's home, one's stuff. There are forces out to get us, so lets board the place up. And Labor had a chance to re-set that thinking just a little in 2007, and they failed. Tony Abbott seemed to be a farcical choice in 2008. Less so in 2009. And today, he's a possible- a very possible Prime Minister.

We've never been near as open, as relaxed and as decent as we've given ourselves popular credit for. Perhaps no place is. National identity is a brand. It's an ad campaign. It never fully expresses the extent of a place, and nor can it. But the idea of Australia and the reality of it seemed to be more divided than before around 2001, and through the decade. So it remains.

So what have we? And what will happen? Is Politics increasingly irrelevant? It seems so. For this is a culture of 'what's in it for me'. Labor people quote Chifley a lot, his light on the hill, but modern Labor has little to do with all that. Modern Labor, like Blair's New Labor, is about power. That's not exactly revelatory, but it sticks in the proverbial of people who join the party at 18 full of ideals and inspired by Chifley and Curtin and Whitlam, who recognise the balance struck by Hawke and Keating between economics and social responsibilities, civic duty, a sense of worth delivered by putting yourself out. Modern Labor isn't really worth the effort. Conservative politics appeals to the passing voter maybe because it has the look of 'meaning it', even if the 'it' is less than savory.

A Gillard government can re-set all this. It can look forward to a Hockey-lead Coalition, a Green senate, and if it acts on Climate Change (in what would be known as 'the good backflip') it can win some hearts. Gillard is the right person- she's personable and she's steady. Simply having her as PM could make us feel like we're progressive. Once we've voted 'for her'. Once she's ours.

Will she become ours?

My feeling is that Labor will win with a majority of ~~4-6 seats~~.

UPDATE- 12:40
Wait a minute. Why don't things feel right? Is it the terse mood of the PM at her morning presser? Was it the heckler at bennelong, as she released doves? Is it the idea of realising fucking doves a day before closest election in memory? Or is it these financials, whacked on the ALP web site, sans a presser, making all Swan's protestations earlier this week look, in a headline sense, pretty shoddy? What gives?

I'll update this during the day if anything significant happens. And I'm revising that figure. First number is always the best number, but the day isn't going so well for Labor. 2-4 seat majority.

Also, Labor will keep Eden Monaro, but lose Bennelong. Maxine, I await your tell-all book.

UPDATE- 16.24
Labor are panicking, apparently. I don't know how that actually materialises, but it's being said. Chris Uhlmann says Abbott, today, has momentum. Everyone's commenting on his 36hr no-doze festival. I wonder how Uhlmann will be read once his wife takes her place in the Reps as a Labor member. Annabel Crabb says if she was betting with her money, she'd back Labor to win, just. But if she had your money, she'd back Abbott.

UPDATE 11:07

Ok- two polls. Newspoll remains 50-50 says a smug Denis Shanahan on Lateline ('my work is almost done!!!'), but as Peter Hartcher points out while he offers tomorrows Neilson (52-48), of the last 10 phone polls, this Newspoll is whack. Considering those 10, it's tough to see anything but a tight Labor win. But we shall see. As stated previously, you know something? It's gonna be close.

Good luck Australia.

Day 34- 24, 36, Tweet tweet tweet

2010-08-19T22:56:00.000+10:00

Let me first say this- there have been a slew of short posts lately. I know. I'm sorry. But what to say? What to say of this ongoing tragicomic bore? Tomorrow I will offer a state of the nation, a look at what it means, all the answers wrapped in lovely electronic type. But that is tomorrow, and today is another short missive. Because the action of the day requires it. Another day of bugger all.

Gillard addresses the Press Club and goes down a treat. She speaks on cynicism, on the circus, on the way forward. Yet again, the delivery is strong, the message not so much. In other words, she is good at this job but her party, and her party line, is pathetically muddled. If she wins she will have to clean a lot of mess. But, one gets the impression from this style of oration, an especially given her ability under questioning, that she has the skillz.

In the meantime, Abbott announces that he's not sleeping till Brooklyn, just like Cameron did in the UK shakedown. Except, Cameron, in doing so, looked young, looked up for it, looked like something Gordon Brown wasn't. Here, it looks desperate. Or so I thought earlier this evening. But every news broadcast leads with it. Tony is going all night. Tony wants the job. Julia won a meat tray just outside Newcastle, and played pool and drank beer and soon will be asleep. Tony is on a ferry in Manly as I type, and will trawl the aisles of Neutral Bay Woolies at 3am, and maybe the Shell servo after that, and then off for a ride and so on. Maybe it's not so desperate. Maybe that, with the news of the latest Newspoll at 50-50 (which I can't quite believe...), could swing some buck toothed Barry in the electorate of West Swingbags, who sees all this and says 'that bloke wants the job- Imma give it up im'. Maybe. Just maybe.

It's not the feeling I have though, overall. There are other stories- Joe Hockey proving why he'll be a poor Lib leader should he get the chance, the latest pratfalls (hideous ones) of the Democrats, so on. But not for now. Tomorrow, a state of the nation. And a prediction. That's right. But unlike Tony, I'm for sleep. I'm a believer. Especially for our political classes. Look what happened to the last leader who never slept, huh?

Day 33- Return to Rooty

2010-08-19T08:25:00.000+10:00

A day of debt and 'debate'- the debate that never happened, and the forum that did. Gillard 'wins' what the twits called RootyQ at the Broncos leagues club (heart of the political nation), but Abbott, by both rejecting a debate on the economy after all that guff and through releasing his budget costings at 4:45 (instead of the planned 3:00pm launch), looks a little shady.

The Coalition have found a bunch of spare cash, so said Jumpin Joe and the A-Robb at a late presser. They even brought graphs and spreadsheets. Couple billion down the back of the couch. A few more by rolling out a dial-up internets facetube network instead of the super expensive geekband idea that frankly does their heads in. All this independently assessed, not through those treasury hacks- the same hacks they'd have to run the thing through if they did form Government. And over and over, they promised that they had provided a plan so that punters could indeed compare apples with apples. Sure, one set of apples were granny smith and the other were some dangerous middle-eastern hybrid, but broadly speaking, everything was within the wider apple family of fruit. Trusts us they said. We're the ones who save money. It's reputational.

RootyQ provided little enlightenment, except the proof that, like the duckworth-lewis system in cricket (used to ensure a result in one day matches affected by rain, through a complicated and stupid system of maths), the advantage of going last is real. Gillard took to the floor and thankfully had a hand held microphone hindering her florid hand gestures. She did fine. Abbott did fine too and came up short. There's a theme emerging there. Small targets, with one looking better, if diminished.

Day 32- Time to waste

2010-08-17T19:57:00.000+10:00

What a stupid day. So close to the end, with rather high stakes, and the story of the day is the debate about the debate. Whatever high ground Gillard had on this seems to have disappeared as she appears to be bouncing back, looking a little haughty. She was a fool to avoid the initial debate request and this is valuable ground she has since lost. Mark Riley on Ch 7 says that it'll lose her the election. Mark Riley has clearly been drinking, but it's a bad look. Bob Brown stepped forward to call it a farce, and he was right.

It's not only the debate providing the dumb- the lead story on the Fairfax news sites is on Gillard's big lie- that she actually used notes for the speech that others had said was off the cuff. She didn't say that herself, but the story has somehow cut through. The evidence? This here photo.

To be fair, the notes were less than exhaustive.

Stupid stupid stuff.

Abbott hits 7:30Reportland for the third and final time and suffers again at the hands of a man who clearly thinks the opposition leader is a fucktard. Nothing too troubling, no huge clangers as per 'gospel truth' or his mis-steps on broadband last week, but he was again uncomfortable, shifty and keen to get out of there. By the end of a very long 20 minutes and by the way he signed off, it was clear that Mr Rabbit thinks little of red Kerry too.

Highlight of the thing was a beautiful piece of timing from la Gillardine, who dropped a press release saying she'll be there tomorrow night to debate, and she'll be happy to appear onstage in the community forum after- after Mr Rabbs. With any luck, that'll be at the end of a more meaningful day than this.

Day 31- Yes we what?

2010-08-16T13:06:00.013+10:00

Abbott makes his first appearance of the campaign on my personal wake-up program, breakfast with Fran Kelly. And these exchanges, roughly transcribed, took place. For real.

On the refusal to debate the PM this Wednesday.
ABBOTT: I’m happy to take questions on the economy but this should be a peoples forum, not a politicians forum… what about giving the people a chance?

FRAN KELLY: What’s wrong with a bit of both though… You seem to be running scared of debating the PM on the economy

ABBOTT: No…

FK: So you will do it?

ABS: Um, I think we should have another peoples forum… why is Julia Gillard refusing to give the people of Queensland what she gave the people of NSW?

FK: She can ask in response ‘why isn’t Mr Abbott willing to debate the economy?’

ABS: Well, you can ask me some questions on the economy…. But I reckon any government willing to put a great big new tax on the mining industry…. Carbon tax…. Is not a government that has serious economic credentials

FK: See it looks to me, and I suspect a lot of people in the electorate, that both leaders want to keep the format that suits them…. It’s the format that’s the issue for you isn’t it, not the scheduling problems?

ABS: Well I think we had a very good peoples forum here in Sydney last week…

FK: That’s because you won it!

Uh huh, Later, he is quizzed on mental health experts have exhibited concern over the duty of care issues surrounding detainees on Nauru. Abbott’s response?

Abbonater: If you talk to people on the island,… the asylum seekers who were there virtually had the run of the island

FK: Well the doctors who were there are saying there were extreme issues of mental illness, mental wellbeing

Abmaster2000: But the people who were put into the detention centres on Nauru basically had the same life of the islanders there, they had they had the run of the island, except for a curfew at night they had the same life as the islanders there.

Really?! The run of the island?!! Oh! See, I thought it was something else. Something less than ideal, or decent. But apparently it was a beach party!

A Gilligans episode, with special guest star Phil ‘DJ Philly Phil’ Ruddock.

I ask you.

I LAUNCH MYSELF, I WANT YOU TO LOVE ME

Democratic convention 2008

Labor launch 2010

Jeez, austerity makes crap television doesn’t it? These Democratic conventions are carnivals. The Labor launch was a lamington drive at the CWA headquarters in Brisbane, because I guess we can’t be seen to be spending money. Was it any good? Was it heck! Kinda!

Opening with Wayne Swan is a strategy rock bands employ all the time- get an opening act who will make you look good by comparison. One of the worst speakers in living memory. Hawkie, on the other hand, began his pitch talking about making sensible investments. Investments. And in doing so, charmed the pants of a decent slab of the nation. By god- personality! He was a little shaky, a little pointy, not quite the powerhouse of 1983. Oddly, he quotes Lee Kuan Yew by way of explaining ‘form’ on the economy, and his own rescue of the Australian coffers in 1983, saying, a little too forcefully. "We would become the poor-white-trash….of Asia! And I copped that when I came into office in 1953” 53- 83. No matter. Dude is old. But entertaining. He works well. Bottom line of Hawkie- ‘generations of neglect by the Tories, having it put right by Labor.' And he introduces 'a friend, a babe, a women I would’ve probably done at least a couple of times in the 70s but now is someone who I hope will beat my record of longest serving Labor PM, here she is, shake your money makers, it’s your ~~Australian idol~~ Prime Minister, Julia-Fucken-Gillard!'

Gillard thanks Hawkie, and gets right to acknowledging the K-Rudd, ‘a man of great achievements and with great achievements to come’. Then goes to mentioning Whitlam, who can’t be there on account of being 600 years old (and yet, sharper than all of us. He’s the tall Yoda), and Paul Keating, who couldn’t be there on account of hating Hawkie.

Friends, Julia wants to speak from her heart. About the importance of work. The transformative power of education. Courtesy and respect in times of need. And in moving forward with confidence. That our best days lie in front, not behind us.

Not everything has gone to plan (you gotta say that, slayer!), but look at us now- no recession, low employment, inflation under control. Look at us! We’re beautiful! Dear god feel our resplendence, our golden tone, our lithe belly and upper arms, our slender ankles and healthy eyeballs!

But to go on, we need proper plans for the future, and I have them. I have them. In a little baggie. Just here, behind the lectern. Do you want to see my plans?

I can’t hear you!

Well ok then!

Jobs economy work schools blah. That’s kinda it. Except for the closing refrain. Not moving forward (it only got two outings in the whole speech). Today's missive is from Chifley, via Obama. Yes we will. Yes we will. You like that Barry?

Yes he does.

LATER- THE NIGHT FOR NERDS
What fun for the tragics- Gillard on 7:30, a 4 Corners elction special, and Abbott on Q&A. But it all begins early, with Ab's calling a conference for 7:15, and at 7:40 something finally agreeing to a debate. Not a town hall debate, but something in the ABC studios. Whatever. He'll be hitting the books.

Gillard on 7:30 is something of a non-event. O'Brien didn't seem to go hard, even though the questions dealt with Rudd, with cabinent process and spending rollout stuff. It flowed quickly enough, and Gillard emerged unscathed.

I wouldn't say the same for Abbott and Q&A. First he gets owned (pwned? Is that how the tech heads say it? LOLOMGWTF!) by a geek on broadband. Then he responds stiltingly to a video question about time travel and trams. He recieves a long hop from a plant (surely!) on the BER spending and plays it square for a single. And then..... and then, an old Lib serviceman throws a beautifully placed yorker on rights for homosexuals. Abbott says that there are lots of terrific gay relationships, but marriage isn't right. He said 'I know some gay people... really well... I do Tony, I really do'. And he digs it out. Until the questioner gets a another crack. His son is gay, and he's pissed off that his son is without rights. His name is Geoff and he's the first hero of the night.

There's more on spending, on welfare, etc, and he never quite looks settled. I asked last week how many people watched Q&A and later found that it was seen by just under 900 000 viewers. Not Masterchef big, but significant. He pushes his paid parental point, calls it a workplace benefit instead of welfare even though the Gov would eventually pay for it. A weird Kevin Rudd impersonator has a go at starting a comedy career and fails. Abbott gets hit with an environment question and says you should ask the Prime Minister, then babbles. Then babbles some more. There is more on health, on GP super clinics, and a nicely pointed question on big tobacco, donations and plain packaging. Stumbles terribly. The boatphone question gets a run. Muslims are addressed, a final question on his faith, and it's over. Twitter crashes on my machine, and its goodnight. Not a complete failure, but not at all a win. These questions over the format of the debate will rage tomorrow, and he'll need a blinder. Maybe. Or maybe those marginals like what they saw, as they too hate boats and find poofs a bit hard to deal with.

Day 30- Depends on your size...

2010-08-15T20:11:00.001+10:00

The walrus gets Julia and Cassidy gets Abbott, but the news is the Galaxy poll that runs counter to the last few offerings from Newspoll and Nielson. The headline? Libs are actually infront, thanks to several marginals. The body copy? 4000 polled in 17 key seats, where the swing is enough to give the Opposition the house on their own. The fine print? Over all those seats, the 4000 (which sounds large and conclusive does it not?) actually breaks down to around 200 polled per seat. A poll becomes a poll, as I understand it, when the sample number is over 400. This is not an exhaustive poll. It might be good for Labor though, giving them a target to fight in this final week, ensuring no one is complacent.

Abbott suggests another Rooty Hill style showdown in Qld, and Julia says sure- as long as the first section of the night is a debate on the economy. Abbott says no. It's a great wedge from Abbott, and an equally great counter wedge from the PM. How will it look? It would seem to these 4 eyes that Abbott will suffer- Julia is giving him what he wants, and he's still running from the economy. But maybe the same can be said for the PM's refusal to just accept something in which she suffered from last week. It's a tough ol game, this claim and counter claim stuff. Takers a lot of energy, energy that might be otherwise used for ideas. Btw, the twits following Abbott spoke of his presser this afternoon, where he took only 12 questions, and would not explain why he wouldn't debate her realness. The twits were unpleased by the performance. The word pathetic was repeatedly tweeted.

Speaking of pathetic

I first heard of Mark Latham when I was a wee young thing, reading a Good Weekend article sometime in the 19th century which suggested he was the next great Labor man, the son of Chifley and Whitlam (shared test tube I spose), the chosen true believer. What a fucken joke he has become. I wrote a few days ago that he can veer from making the most pure sense to coming up all crazy on yo ass within a blink. Well, I was being polite. These last few days, indeed these last few outings since he implored Rudd to 'man up' and own the leaks, have been nothing but displays of ugly, bitter illness. It was either Andrew Denton or Chris Taylor who said, when interviewing him some years ago, that he seems to absolutely breathe the old Labor ideal, and yet be unable to communicate it- to indeed, be in polite company and play the requisite games. Which was shorthand for- you're a bit bi-polar fella, grab some help. And so it has gone and so he is.

Gimmicky, moi? Via Fairfax.

Thing is, there might be something in the message for viewers of 60 Minutes. The politicians are stage managed! They're not fair dinkum! They've got no ideas! Stuff of rare insight champ. Except, once again, you're not the man to tell that story- because you're the man that once signed a big cheque. Your biggest policy success involved mandatory reading to children (where you, sir, participated in several photo-ops, just like the ones you ridiculed this evening). If it had been spun as a story of ones man's emergence into the light, after being manhandled by the machines, a mea culpa, a true look behind the curtain, that might've done something. But Latham's ego is far too vast for such apologies, and the take away messages were- at least Pauline Hanson was real, and you all should vote donkey. Tonight's stab for attention for this stay at home dad (what a delight it must be to live in that house!) was odious. Just horrible. Yes, he made points- he can do that. We all can. It's neither here nor there when his lack of grace poisons all he says. Go away.

Day 29-Philosophical Interlude: A New Green?

2010-08-15T19:58:00.001+10:00

I was a little concerned, 213 years ago when this campaign began, that the Greens were going to call this their 'Clegg' moment, their Lib Dem push from third party comparative obsolescence to main stage 'playas'. Not because the Australian system doesn't require such a third, competitive force in both the upper and lower house, but because the Greens aren't ready, and that might otherwise harm a party that will hopefully become something more significant in the next several years.


Big Bad Bob- Via News.

The Greens have become a more significant, measured party in recent times, but retain a reputation of a reactionary party who don't yet have a suite of policies to appeal beyond their base. In many ways, that's ideal- they're passionate and bold, and like or loathe them, their position is clear. But, since the demise of the Democrats, we have lacked a cohesive voice that can occupy the centre left. It'll take some sidestepping, but the Greens could occupy that space, and we'd be the better for it.

Thing is, Bob Brown, for all his commitment and poise, is looking tired. Not tired enough to be put to pasture, but too tired to start a big push. The push toward proper third-party action, and for the Greens to possibly temper some of the policy angles which will always thwart their cause, requires a new face.

To seriously to compete for lower house action, they might consider a subtle re-brand. Brown would need to pass the baton, thereby proving that it is possible to handball leadership in a dignified manner. To whom is the question, for Scott Ludlam lacks gravitas, Christne Milne possesses a voice that strips paint, and Sarah Hanson-Young occupies a space between the two- her appearances on Q&A this year have left her looking minor.

Able deputy Clegg.

The Lib-Dem/Tory coalition is a thing that is worth watching. As excited as planet Earth was for Obama, his presidential story so far is much of a muchness- a difficult congress, a fuddled record, an inability to sell the good work that has gone on. But the British coalition is an emerging case study in the potential redundancy of partisan politics. It's early still, but this kind of Government might provide an interesting study in this nation, as more and more become disengaged by the two majors. There's only a 1000 flaws in my argument, but, do we really think that things are working out with the Labors and the Liberals?

Day 28- Tipping the cart

2010-08-13T22:54:00.000+10:00

So it seems we're back to situation normal. Gillard and Labor have dragged their discordant arses back into the campaign thanks to some stellar performances from the leader and the absence of Rudd or Rudd related palaver. Abbott lurches from disaster on the 7:30 Report to a solid performance 'down on the level' at Rooty Hill (nope, I'll never tire of it either), and we're back where we were- two parties travelling madly round the nation making a lot of noise about very, very little. From the senseless repetition of the words 'boats' and 'stop' to targeted cash drops, like UN aid in marginal seats. A week and a day to go and the parties, the polls, and the pulses have levelled.

As Barrie Cassidy said in his Drum piece, Labor's late scheduling of their launch looks suddenly like a masterstroke. It looked damn stoopid two weeks ago, but now they stand a good chance of being the story on Monday. Unless Lathams Sunday night piece is a doozy. Or if Rudd's appearance on the Ch 7 program, head to head with Latham, drops the party in the proverbial. These are possibilities, and Abbott will be hoping for such a drop.

Speaking of Tones, this is a picture of him.

This is another. He is racing Christopher Pyne, who is thankfully not pictured, in Deakin. Both men are in control of carts, in the rain, with small children inside them.

I'm gonna leave you with these images of our potential prime minister and minister for education for a moment.

Seriously.

GET UP!

It was remiss of me not to write on Get Up!'s victory last week to include those who updated their enrolment or enrolled late on the big day, but today the decision has been confirmed, quashing the appeal of some dim witted fucktards from somewhere and something significant has occured as a result.

Listen. Come closer. I'll tell you a secret. I'm not a big fan of student politicians. I know, crazy right? I've spent more than enough time in the fetid presence of folk who clutch Chomsky or Ann Rand and spout stuff and smell and just make one wanna cover ones shoes in puke. So groups like Get Up, who have an appearence of maybe a post-grad, slightly grown up version of the above, veer close to offence. But Get Up are, in the main, ahead of the curve, for one key reason- they understand humour. Humour works- it skewers systems. It exposes poseurs, highlights a detail vaccuum. It's always amazing to me that so many groups work the po-face khaki guilt-trip angle. It just doesn't win. So Get Up deserve a round for working a better angle, and now have stepped up to the serious leagues with a major win. For this victory they should be appropriately lauded.

Having said that, what the win does is spotlight the stupidity of Labor not repealing the law themselves. The Coalition's move to close the ballot on the day of the call was mean and dirty, and should've been wound back as an early matter of business. As written on day 1, why Labor, who tend to be favoured by the young, didn't do so is a mystery, and shame on them for not. See, I'm using a bit of that student politico language to get in the spirit! Shame Labor Shame! No, lets pile into my new Volkswagon Daddy just got me and head down to Gloria Jeans where we can read passage from Marx & Engels to each other till that gets boring, after which we'll go shopping at Witchery! Yeah!

Instead of watching highlights packages of the day however, I tune out till Lateline, where George Meglogenis and Laura Tingle fall over themselves in agreeance. The key messages? The Liberal campaign has peaked, and the launch, which was an opportunity to hit it out of the park, played small and failed. The Rooty Hill thing was ok, but Tingle suggests that the move to the floor wasn't actually that good- it didn't look Prime Ministerial. On the downside for Labor, the cash fling in Western Sydney on Thursday didn't look good. But neither does the mess of the Liberal internets 'policy'. And while belief in both parties is at a low, one is lower thn the other.

And this is reflected in the Nielson poll, out in tomorrows Fairfax papers. Labor 53-LNP 47. And the Labor primary is up to 40.

Day 27- Who runs this show?

2010-08-12T11:17:00.003+10:00

Brilliantly, Sky news broadcast the NBN announcement via a camera phone. That breaks. So we cross to audio from a regular phone. Crackly, indistinct words from Julia and Stevie Conroy about how we need fast internets, and now. Through a dodgy phone line.

The brawler & the bruiser, toes to toe in the dickhead-off. Via SMH

Later, Sky crosses to the scrum after Abbott's announcement for veterans. The scrum doesn't surround Abbott, but the man 'just trying to file his story, this Sunday, 60 minutes', only Captain Latham of the Cranky-Sad-and-Lonely Express! What a wobbly vessel she is. Bile? Sure thing, he's got plenty? Machismo? maybe, if your idea of essential masculinity just crawled from the cave for a scratch of the ancient arse and a slash on the once glowing embers of a career. Journos crowded round to ask what in hell he was doing there and why he was the figure of all this attention, to which he replied 'I dunno- it's your decision to point your cameras toward me.' Fair call. A better call was his response being asked if he watched the Rooty Hill throwdown. 'Oh no', he said, with something almost, momentarily resembling charm. 'I was watching Farmer Wants a Wife'.

Latham waited and waited for Abbott, sealing the only exit with his vast frame while Abbott worked his way through the oldies, there to be quite justly honoured. Sky took it live and it became progressively more like car crash stuff. Lib minders moved chairs to seal Latham from Abbott. Latham made himself a coffee and was accosted by a vet- I think somewhat tersely. Then he got his interview with Abbott. He asks 'are you brave enough to shake my hand?' They laugh. Then he says 'are you prepared to apologise for your role in jailing Pauline Hanson?' Abbott says this was the Qld justice systems call. Latham then says what about this migration issue? Abbott says what about it? And a vet calls out 'this is about veterans, why don't you bugger off?'

To recap, the former leader of the Federal Labor party's first, and only questions to the Liberal leader and possible Prime Minister were regarding Pauling Hanson, who he feels got a bum deal, and Immigration, which Latham would like to curtail.

Result? Abbott looks good. Latham is a cock.

Day 26- Rooty-ed

2010-08-12T08:45:00.000+10:00

Here in Canberra, we've got some hilarious suburb names. We've got Bruce (named after Stanley), Downer (named after Alexander's Dad) and Swinger Hill (named for.... I just don't know). I'm sure that you've got some zingers in your area. But it'll take something indeed to beat ol Rooty Hill. Made famous through Rodney Rude's live LP that a guy at my school gladly memorised and performed for us through most of 1992, the locale for last nights non-debate community grilling must've been the result of a wagish Daily Tele scribes half-drunk Monday meeting ramblings. It's perfect. It's Tele heartland. It's Howard battler centrale. And we shouldn't be surprised that Abbott walked away with a win.

The ninja v the conviction dude. He means it, man. Via News.

Somebody tell me, unequivocally, that a staffer from somewhere didn't mention to Abbott, before he mounted the stage, that Julia couldn't help but look a little removed, up there on the stage, all virgin-Queen like, and he might benefit from a hokey trip down to the floor. No? No one can tell me that with confidence? While we're at it, tell me that the order of business, Abbott speaking second and then being able to be photographed mingling with 'the people' after the event, wasn't a well contrived bit of assistance. No? No one able to back that up? I'm unsurprised.

Considering that the tone of questions to Gillard were along the lines of 'why are you such a hideous, murderous bitch?' and those to Abbott seemed more like 'so, tell us about how many sit ups you do and how much you liked your abs?', a win was in the bag early for Tones. He needed one. Yesterday was better in general, with a Newspoll indicating that while Labor leads, they remain in trouble in QLD and bits of NSW. That's why a bag of cash was spread over Western Sydney, linking their rail lines to the city, a job the State party haven't been able to sort for 15 years. So it goes. If your community has an issue, you've gotta hope that it's an issue that can sure up votes in a tight election to have something done. It's the way now. That's where the vision comes from.

It was a day of weird, and of lame. The Opposition refusing to submit costings because of a leak? Taking their bat and ball and trundling off, wiping brows with relief? Come now.

Tele and other Murdoch tabloid readers in small bits of this country will decide this election, as stated on day one of this blog. Abbott had a better day. After showing his lack of ability for detail, brilliant detailed itself by Annabel Crabb, re a 6bn policy (can we just pause the fuck up on that for a minute?!! "I'm no Bill Gates- but I'm sure this 6 billion dollars that I'm putting my name to is fine"!!), Abbott stemmed the bleeding.

Day 25- Just a typo

2010-08-10T14:42:00.004+10:00

The ranga and the silver fox get friendly. Via ABC.

Feel that? Those shifting winds? They're subtle, sure, and they swirl, but they do constitute a change. Momentum change. It's not just Gillard's Q&A performance, but that did inspire, so the SMH says, a huge plunge on the betting markets today. It was a solid element to be sure, but it's got to do with the poll numbers too, and the bungled figures of the Libs, and Costello bringing further attention to the totally reasonable attack ad that features his comic dismissal of Abbott's skills with bills. It's in Joe Hockey's high-pitched alarmist tone on the RN breakfast program today, and his almost hysterical throwdown presser after lunch, demanding Wayne Swan man up over the 'leaking' of Treasury figures. The shift is on.

ILL-COMMUNICATION

This is not a photo-composite but a real human face.

Via netalarmed.com

The communications debate at lunch was notable for featuring two of the least likeable figures in politics (Conroy and Smith) against one of the most likeable (the charming but maybe a little useless Scott Ludlam), and by balancing bad with bad. Conroy's filter is deathly stupid. But the Liberal response, a cheaper, slower internets, launched an hour before the debate, is lame.

The botched figures are more interesting- the opposition suggests there's a 3.3billion black hole. Swan counters with a robust deflection. And then Abbott says 'look, there were a couple of typos'. It's claim and counter claim town, but the Libs look worse. Today at least. It's on the breeze.

AND TO CLOSE- A BLOODBATH
There's a few of you, and maybe you're expecting something vastly detailed on the 7:30 Report. Maybe you're hoping for penetrating insight and Wildean wit. I am here to apologise. For all I can say is it was a massacre, pure and simple. Scalp 3 for King Kerry 2010 (meaning, I guess, that this scalp is a de-plugging, an advanced hair removal therapy, as Tony has been done twice by a man who, quite clearly I suspect, does not in any way like Mr Wabbit). It began with broadband and ended with Tone's endorsement of a candidate who dislikes the gay, the jewish and the womanly. And inbetween it was either the most painful 20 minutes of television this side of Undercover Boss, or the most pleasant. Dear god. The wheel has now completely turned.

Day 24- And yet, what have we here?

2010-08-08T23:14:00.004+10:00

The day 24 entry starts now, 11:00pm Sunday, for the latest Newspoll has dropped, and I'm a little... well, I just don't know. On two party, ALP 52 (+2), LNP 48 (-2). On primaries, ALP 38 (+1), LNP 42 (-1), AG 13 (+1), others etc. Essentially it's the same breakdown as 2007, except Labor has dropped 5 primary percentage points and the Greens have gained all of them.

This becomes fascinating.

For the narrative (not just my own, mind), is one that squeals look! Look at the hilarious bumbling Labor circus! Look at them shake and shimmy across a stage of stupid, with their stupid faces and pointless word making mouths all a-moving! But the numbers say Labor is holding on, and getting better. Remember, the Neilson was +1 for the ALP too. After all that pain and wailing and gnashing and gore, Labor are gaining.

And so, when do we start reading about the shift in fortunes, the 'Tony has thrown everything at it and can't move the mountain' pieces? When does Peter Hartcher and his like stop writing stuff stating that 'it's Abbott's to lose'? Have we been sold a confection, that places Abbott as a 'frontrunner', instead of someone polling quite well in the face of some horrific weeks for Labor? Does it start to play on Abbott and his merry tories that, after all that, they still trail? Does this put a smile on Malcolm Turnbull's dial (my friend, I shall vanquish thee)?

The point, the really big point in light of these new numbers, is that Labor keep fucking up and yet voters seem to be sticking with them. More than that, they're clawing back.

This will be an interesting day.

LUNCHTIME
The PM has taken questions at a Perth school and pledged performative bonuses for good teachers, while Peter Costello has demanded an ad, featuring a pretty direct quote from one of his several farewell pressers, be taken off air. Quoted out of context he was. The nation calls bullshit, one suspects.

On the Economy, Swannie and Sloppy went toe to toe at the Press Club. How was it for you? I couldn't watch. And interestingly, no one is calling a winner as I type- perhaps they were bored off their chairs too. (The tweeters lean toward Swannie)

Abbott goes to a house that had some dodgy pink batts installed to tell planet Earth that Scott Morrison is in Nauru, right now, and its his understanding that they're cool with Australia re-opening the detention centre (or dent cent). Never mind that a) Nauru hasn't actually got a functioning Government currently, and b) there's a reason the ALP is keen on a UNHCR approved space (got something to do, however loosely, with common decency). Never mind all that. Why Labor can't shoot this one down is beyond me.

Meanwhile, the Libs have to deal with a slimy toad.

Just one kiss Julie, and you'll have your prince. Via ABC

Continuing the fine tradition of former leaders making cocks of themselves, ol Andrew Peacock makes a disability gaffe. Does anyone remember Andy Plumage? He lost a few times in the 80's. Handsome guy. But a loser.

WHAT'S A LAZY 7 BILL AMONGST COMRADES?

So someone was watching that debate at lunch, and noticed that big Sloppy mentioned a total campaign spend figure of 25 billion. He clearly hadn't heard his friend and leader on the ABC this morning, where Tony stated that no more than 18 billion would be spent. Oops. Economic credibility huh? Andrew Robb releases a statement saying that it's all ok- the missing 7 billion were savings, or future savings, or something that they were planning to spend in order to save, and so 18 billion is ok. It's like buying a pair of trainers for 60 bucks, on sale, which were originally 130 bucks, and then telling your girlfriend that said saving is as good as putting $70 in her pocket. I have some understanding of this scenario, as does my (shall I call her 'long suffering'?) girlfriend. So, Andy Robb, I feel you. Sure I do.

AND FINALLY, WE MIGHT HAVE A PRIME MINISTER

I planned a long post on Q&A. I thought've of a live blog. I thought better of it and sat down at 9:35 wondering how she'd go.

She went very well indeed. This was real Julia, grappling with tough ones and putting the long hops over the fence. Not perfect- oh no. Hamstrung by the community cabinet, stung by questions on same sex marriage and refugees. But she addressed everything. Everything. Stared it in the face and had a go. She indicated fallibility and looked stronger for it. Who the hell watches Q&A? I dunno. But let us now see if word gets out. Her sail, if you'll excuse a potentially problematic analogy, is getting wet. Let's see. The scribes should pick up on this. It was the Julia we thought we'd have when she toppled the man who, it must must must be said, made the mess she now mops. She went well. And Abbott, even amongst his most ardent fans, will struggle to be this likeable and direct on next weeks episode.

Day 23- Adults Only

2010-08-08T19:40:00.003+10:00

So ch 9's CEO David Gyngall apologised for the Latham intrusion that coats the front pages of today's papers. Hollow words considering that Latham's 'piece' will still run on 60 Minutes (more on that later...), but it goes some way to confirming one thing- Latham is an unimpressive nutter (and full marks to the walrus for having a crack at his own network on the nightly news- full marks, but Laurie is running at a serious deficit). The look of it however, after the awkward Rudd/Gillard sit-down, made for perhaps the worst day of the campaign, so we're told. And yet, why? No gaffes, no announcement based mistakery. Just bad images. Which tells us much of how we read campaigns, and what campaigns are based on, what they're motivated by. Considering that imperative, Labor are losing not only by playing small, but by playing the modern game, not giving good positive picture. It's a game of ambient, unquantifiable inches, and if you're not on top you can look super stupid super fast.

So the government receives what is essentially a good report card from the BER inq, and yet can't find a way to spin past Chris Pyne's whines. Paid parental leave murmurings threaten to destabilise Abbott, but instability is currently owned by the ALP. And Abbott drops his major clanger of the campaign, but it's nothing compared to the Rudd circus. Now Abbott can continue to knock the offer of a debate back and look like he's in control. The office of Prime Minister is looking a little shaky.

On Insiders George Megalogenis mused on whether this campaign has boiled down to a bunch of men roughing up a woman. Barrie Cassidy slapped the press pack down for its performance yesterday, and then proceeded to ask a collection of questions to his guest, Gillard, about Latham, Rudd, the mood in the camp. Of course the journalists are performing badly. But their source material remains poor. Neither are winning, but no-one is losing as much as the voter.

So Rudd has been re-introduced to quiet the naysayers, maybe plug the leaks, and shure up Queensland. Ecept that polling indicates Rudd is a loser in his home state. As 'unpacked' by George Meg on Insiders, the Labor primary in Qld is at 26% or thereabouts. Horrifically low. And in a two name battle, Abbott is preferred PM to Rudd something like 46-33. So, to be at 50-50 nationwide indicates how well Labor is doing. Will Rudd help up north? Or is it a case of having him 'in the tent' is less ruinous than outside it?

Putting it quickly and quietly, Labor seems fucked.

On the other hand...

RELEASING THE HOUNDS

Today is the day where Tony Abbott makes his pitch that little more concrete. He does well by all reports. Money is not thrown around. Infact, nothing is really promised. It is, indeed, an action plan. A plan for stuff to happen. Which kinda differs from vision, or even policy really. Just Tony, saying he's gonna fix it. Roll up his sleeves. Roll up his pants. Fuck it, get rid of the pants altogether- who needs em? They just contsrict those vast swinging balls of his, balls he's gonna put behind putting the nation right. And the biggest bit of good luck? By comparison, this bunch who looked like the most ridiculous outfit just 9 months ago seem watertight compared to Labor. Howard introduces Abbott. Abbott refers to his predecessor, Malcolm, as a 'friend'. He announces a 'debt reduction taskforce' to get to work in the first week of Government. If this was Labor, it'd be ridiculed as more bureaucracy. Out of this mouth, it sounds like action.

Tony's ladieez in tha house. Real action. All images via Fairfax.

Boat people will be jailed, then burnt. It'll be on TV, probably hosted by Laurie Oakes. People smugglers will be tarred, have their eyes gouged, and put on sticks around the coastline. The Murray-Darling? Fixed. Afghanistan? Tony's gonna drop in, do some training. He'll lift the 'mining tax threat'. He'll lift the 'carbon tax threat'. He'll lift 4 times his bodyweight and introduce casual Thursdays to Question Time so he can ponce about in lycra, or no pants(QT doesn't sit, normally, on a Friday). He'll do it all, cos this election is the most important since 1975, when that other mob of Labor incompetents needing ousting.

Something else from George Mega on Insiders this morning- he thinks Abbott's figures are out- way out. Illegally so almost. But can Labor pounce? No. Because whatever Abbott says sounds about right, sounds planned, not the stuff of chaos, of Labor. He sounds more like a Prime Minister. The tide has turned, and it seems to be turning some more.

There are those of us who find this hard to believe. But so it is, so it is indeed going. Remember, Labor's launch is Monday week. Too late to stem the bleeding? Maybe.

Day 22- Old friends

2010-08-07T23:00:00.001+10:00

Day 21 passed me by. Unlike the bloggers featured in this piece by James Massola, I couldn't keep up. And nor am I terribly upset by being omitted by said piece- there's 1000's of us tapping away at this, right? And Grogs Gamut (the blog featured in the piece) is a good read. A long read, but a good one (his tweets are a little insufferable though). Thing is, this blog exists as a coping mechanism. For me. And I gots to say, it's getting tougher to cope. But long, whining and windblown missives on leadership, what the point of the Labor party is and just what could happen under an Abbott Gov are for another day. Today's story is one of friendship- old friends moving on, moving forward, together, looking forward to moving forward, going forward, etc.

Fairfax told us this morning, via their Neilson poll, that the Opposition remains in the lead, losing one point from their two party count (a point that went not directly to Labor, but via the Greens, whose primary has lifted to 13%, and who will receive a post all their own, soon). A Galaxy poll in key marginals indicated a swing of between 1.3% and 1.6% to Labor, and a Newspoll in marginals indicated something similar- however, these swings haven't put Labor in a winning position in these seats (such as Bowman and Eden Monaro), but simply stemmed the bleeding. Meanwhile a Westpoll indicates that Labor are doing ok in WA. Point being? Exactly what pollster, and self confessed focus group pioneer Hugh Mackay says in his piece in todays Herald. That, as far as polls go, they don't really do nothin' but fuel journalists with pages to fill, until the last last week of the campaign. That, and the fact that these tight numbers indicate how neither party, and neither leader, has been able to involve and engage the populace.

For the actual interest in this campaign has been from the sideline soap operas, none bigger than the Rudd factor. Today Julia and Kevin sat down together for a chinwag, maybe tea and a biscuit, maybe some Baileys and milk. It looked awkward. You'd expect that. If it was worthwhile, if the photo from the photo op does something for the Labor campaign, it wasn't obvious.

It almost looks Photoshopped. But it's not. Via Fairfax

And then, just when you thought Channel 9 couldn't go lower/scummier/shittier (Hey Hey! Ray Martin! Laurie Oakes! ), they trot out Mark Latham as a 'reporter', and the tweeters discuss his standover, macho horseshit approach when interviewing Gillard. It'll make interesting viewing I guess, but from all reports she handled it with grace, and Latham did not. No alarms and no surprises.

Ugly stuff Latham. Via News.

The tweetfolk went a little nuts over the presser that Latham crashed, with questions on policy going missing and replaced with questions on former leaders from several in the press pack. On the one hand, we, the governed, need the hacks to get under the political skin. On the other, they've not got a lot of ideas to question, have they?

For the record, Latham, in the photo above, was wondering aloud, in that special way of his, why someone from Labor had complained about his being there as a Ch. 9 operative. Jeez Mark. I just can't imagine.

By the way- has anyone thrown down any ideas about the country? No? Ok. Maybe tomorrow.

Day 21- Shutdown (Or, Feedback Loop)

2010-08-07T17:21:00.000+10:00

Day 20- Return of the Rudd

2010-08-05T16:04:00.002+10:00

Gather round childrens. Sitting comfortably? Relaxed and comfortably? Good. Then I'll begin.

Once upon a time there was a kid called Phillip Adams. He had a tough upbringing, became an adman, then a film producer, then a writer and broadcaster. His 'little wireless program' is the radio equivalent of a peer-reviewed journal- its considered. It takes its time. He's not one to break a big news story as it happens (as Jonathon Holmes, incorrectly, tried to lampoon on MediaWatch).

But last night Adams scooped everyone, by introducing a friend of his- a bloke who also had a rough childhood, and recently has had a rough middle age. And his friend, known to us as the Krudd, is back on deck. Sounding annoying folksy but reminiscent of someone we got to know in 2007. He spoke of his health, his party, and how he thinks Tony Abbott is a bad choice.

Next day, the Krudd hopped behind a lectern, infront of two Australian flags, to repeat the same. My government wasn't perfect- none is. But that doesn't mean you should be switching to that wingnut fucktard (authors emphasis, but that was the gist). He looked good. he sounded, and seemed... prime ministerial.

And what does it all mean? It's near impossible to tell. On the hand, it provides a kick for Gillard, a settling of the chatter, another circuit break. On the other, it provides confusion (hey- I remember that bloke! And you know what? I used to like him! Why did I stop liking him? I forget!). Dennis Shanahan, against all the odds (what ails you, sir? What ails you?), tried to spin it negative. Labor folk seem happy. Who knows? Throw out the polls, throw out the form guide. The only thing we can be sure of is that Abbott's health plan is not the story of the day. Not close.

Day 19- Halfway to a threeway

2010-08-04T16:20:00.000+10:00

Folks, it's getting tiring. Isn't that right Tony?

Yep, sure is Glenroi. Via fairfax.

Abbott went for the oldies, having a bit of a bowl and flinging some money about 'for those who want to work', while her Realness announced more cash for parents. That, and another call for a debate. Tony says no. This will go on. And on. We're halfway there. And what have we learnt?

That small target stuff benefits nobody.
That Kevin Rudd may still harbour some ill will.
That realness is more important than, say, ideas, or leadership. Whatever it is, make sure its real.
That Tony Abbott, on the leash, is still capable of a clanger.
That this election is, even more so considering today's newspoll, all about the marginals.

And what does that tell us, in brief? That elections are, more than ever, about retention of power. I know, politics is always about that, but allow me a youthful moment of confusion, the last before my innocence is quashed for good. Parties build their brands on ideas. And, if one takes a quick flick through the books, some big things happened in this country. Sure, we have been embarrassingly slow to take a up a bunch of big challenges (I could make a list, but you know exactly what I mean). But the nation did motor ahead at various points. It did. It's part of how we sit now, in cities and towns, wasting time on writing/reading blogs.

This is not one of those times.

This, after the relief of Kevin 07 and the subsequent confusion as to where all the movement we were promised had been shifted to, may well splinter the Labor party. Win or lose, this party cannot seriously say that it represents the Labor movement. As for the Liberals, what is their point? It's not the party of Menzies, born of a British idea of conservatism. Nor is it Howhard's Republican lite, with Abbott's taxing of business, his paid parental scheme, so on. Both have exiled themselves in order to win. And will, we assume, in our lazy nation, continue to do so, until someone comes along with a better idea. Anyone?

Day 18- Really, no

2010-08-03T18:45:00.015+10:00

So interest rates remained where they were, the real JG took to Vile and Jackie Ho's morning program on her 'Feel the Real' tour 2010, and Tony Abbott dropped the biggest one of the campaign so far.

As perfectly summed up by David Penberthy, Tony's 'does no really mean no' clanger is just stupid. Nevermind the chorus of 'slander!' and 'smear!' that Abbott and his friends will spill on the topic- it's just an ugly, stupid use of language, something that goes right to the heart of the Lib's worst concerns re the brawler and his relationships to the lady voters. The fact that he repeated the term four times further confirms the worry. Once is a mistake. Four times, with the speaker assuming he was onto a cute riff, shows an insensitivity that his campaign has done so well to avoid in the past week and a bit. Since the debate infact. Of which we might not see another, thanks to Abbott's schedule and ugly dismissal. Watch this space on the debate front. It'll be an excellent micro-study on how short the national memory is. To suggest it on the night of the Lib launch, while perhaps being off the cuff (in response to Today Tonight's harangue), is a little too cute. But if folk are thinking that Abbott is soft for 'running from a fight' in a weeks time, well then- national amnesia might require funding in the next health budget.

LATER

Gillard heads to 730reportland for the second of campaign appearances and escapes by a nose (ha! Here all week try the veal etc). But O'Brien's line of questioning wasn't forcefully unpleasant- it just sounded that way. Here's the rub for Labor. A collection of perfectly reasonable questions sound like an attack. Holes in all the arguments- on not calling Rudd, on not taking the community cabinet thing idea to proper (traditional, not gang of four style) cabinet, on the real v the fake, on calling out Abbott on the debate, so on. There is just so much mess. But Gillard escaped, and occasionally looked strong. Prime Ministerial almost...

And in semi-related news, Andrew Bolt is threatening to sue Twitter's @andrewbolt. Question being- who is the real Andrew Bolt? And why is realness so important all of a sudden? In Bolt's case, 'his' twitter is far more readable than his column.

Day 17- The real slim lady

2010-08-02T11:09:00.003+10:00

Your job is safe Barry, I promise. Via Fairfax.

Day 17, sure, but day 1 of the real Julia campaign. Which is fine, and probably good for Labor (the Gillard that we get moments before the official speeches where she's talking to the media is funny, warm and charming. The Julia in the speech is staccato, stage managed and wooden), but what a dangerous strategy, giving the opposition a bunch of 'can you trust her' style line opportunities. Still, maybe there's nothing else that can be done. As Phillip Coorey says in the SMH, "All that the last two months has shown is that the flaws within Labor run deeper than Rudd. The inability to defend itself and land blows on the opposition, and silly policies such as the citizens' assembly, demonstrate this."

Newspoll has the 2 party at 50-50, confirming the trend. Someone might add that after the week Labor has had, to be at 50-50 isn't too bad. If you consider flesh wounds trifling, that is. The SMH election blog has this graphic, which shows that it's not calamitous, but it's not a good look for the Government.

Time to start wondering about what all this is telling us. On the one hand, it's a small target campaign that is boring us, frustrating us. On the other, jesus! It's a first term Government, with a new leader, who guided a nation through a a pretty rough money downturn thing, that seems unable to sell itself. Maybe because selling itself is selling Rudd. Or maybe because it's also a Government that stuffed a few key things and forgot to do a few others, like the stuff that they suggested they would in 2007. Maybe. But the speed of all this is quite something.

This is the first real social media election- while Kevin used the platforms well in 07, they were still fresh- the intervening years have been the years where the wider populace have accepted these methods of receiving information. Like anything, we've grown used to the speed by which things proceed. So, the news metabolism has quickened, and we've become used to slimmer pickings since. Perhaps one term Governments will become more familiar. Maybe we'll have two PM's per term. Maybe. For on the one hand things are quickening, and on the other the people are moving further away, caring less. Howard was very good at killing issues by repetition and boredom. He's set a template that no one on either side has had the stones to shift. And it's a pity.

LATER
And the real Julia says 'why not' to another debate, this Sunday. It just so happens that the Libs had booked the night for their campaign launch. Your call Tones. Bob B is keen too (it's my Clegg moment! What shall I wear?!) . The pundits aren't super-keen on this realness guff, across all the papers and programs I can spy. But it's a better day for Labor. Or at least, not a completely horrific one. Annabel Crabb, as usual, writes the most entertaining round-up of the current action. And yet, on Twitter around 2pm, Dennis Atkins notes that an Essential Poll has Labor 54-Lib 46 two party. And I see no reference to this in any papers or TV. Is an Essential poll a bad poll? A poll not bankrolled by major news organisations? Maybe it's old, maybe it's rogue. Hells, maybe there'll be three more leaks tomorrow and Julia will give up. But today feels a little, just a little different. And Abbott looks like a man waiting for a hit. Whether he can handle it is the question.

LATER STILL
The SMH election blog tells me that Essential Polls are online things taken over a week, basically reflecting opinion going back almost two weeks. So, that's why there's no hullabaloo on that front.

More importantly, Tony has knocked back JG's offer for a Sunday chinwag. Which either makes him look in control and prime ministerial, or frightened. Will it matter?

Day 16- Spies like us

2010-08-01T11:10:00.000+10:00

This morning's leak? Not so much a direct line from the Labor rabble, but from News, who claim that the original poodle Alexander 'Upper' Downer fed lines to Rudd way back when, knowing that Rudd would leak and therefore damage his party from the inside. Mark Latham wouldn't be surprised. Also in News, Latham was said to have filed a five word column on Rudd. I shall not re-pre-print it here, but the content won't surprise.

So Rudd, for all his flaws, is on his back in hospital, from where he has issued a denial. How does this one play? Does sympathy get a look in shortly? And if so, how does that play for Gillard?

On Insiders Piers Ackermann makes many mentions of Gillard's white jackets, and therefore her obvious desire to be seen as clean and virginal, unsullied by the blood on her hands. Not to mention her partner's drink driving history- the public has a right to know! David Marr counters with lovely snarky irony that reassures his base and further alienates Ackermann's, so everything is as-per-program. On twitter, Annabel Crabb writes 'what is Piers talking about?' It's a good question, but Daily Tele readers don't care about that, now do they?

There is discussion about how Labor needs a circuit-breaker, one provided by, say, a campaign launch. But the Labor launch will be in the last week of the campaign. This could be a major strategic bungle. The enough rope strategy isn't working on Abbott, who has been hugely restrained.

Abbott got infront of Laurie Oakes on the Weekend Today program. Must have been tough for the walrus to play second fiddle, but he was restrained also. Oakes on Tony, on message together. The walrus grilled Abbott on being a weathervane, and Tony offered his mini mantras in response. Abbott recived praise for staying on message. He also was handed this:

LO: In the notorious 7: 30 Report interview, with Kerry O'Brien, you said in the heat of discussion... I can't read my writing. But you said, - no "but in the heat of discussion You go a little bit further than you would if it was absolutely calm, considered, prepared, scripted." Now, that's an exact quote. A lot of people leapt on that as questioning your truthfulness. I was more concerned what it said about you, the admission that in the heat of the moment, you go further than you should. Is that a good quality for a Prime Minister?
TA: It's something that has got to be kept under the best possible control Laurie, and that's something that obviously I'm very, very determined to do.

See? He's keeping his impulses, his tory tourettes, under control. Almost halfway there Tones- keep this up and you can explode all over the nation August 22. Like a combo of the fat guy from that Monty Python film and the guy riding the bomb at the end of Dr Strangelove. Messy.

Day 15- Shit just got serious

2010-07-31T20:25:00.002+10:00

Ladies and gentlemen- so far this lil weblog has been written with a particular insouciant carelessness- because we all knew who was going to win.

Today has shaken that.

So, today's message is- this man could be our next Prime Minister.

Wow.

Day 14- The Gall...

2010-07-30T13:43:00.003+10:00

A couple of days ago I was wondering where the backline has been for Labor- while Hockey, Bishop (J) and Robb have been prominent, until recently Labor has been all about Gillard. Swannie popped up over the weekend and Bill Shorten got a ‘thank-you’ run yesterday, but in the main the Labor campaign has been the Gillard campaign. Till today, with Stephen Conroy getting a run thanks to the broadband announcement.

I don’t know if it’s online anywhere, nor would I necessarily point you toward it if it were, but Conroy just appeared on Lunchtime Agenda with David Speers, and proved a point. Look. Here’s a simple tip for the Prime Minister and Labor- don’t put Stephen Conroy near a fucking camera. Ever. Again. Speers nailed him to the cross, doused him with fuel and danced about with a lit match. And yet that was nothing compared to the damage Conroy did to himself. He wailed. He yelled over the host. He pushed lines so beyond belief that it made one choke on one’s cupcake ('the people out there aren’t asking me questions about Kevin Rudd or Mark Latham or leaks- they’re asking me when they can get broadband in their homes'). It was brutal. Conroy needs to be put somewhere. Perhaps in a box with Latham and Rudd. A small box, very far away.

I've no problem, as I suspect any thinking typing googling tweeting person would, with better broadband, or this NBN as we must abbreviatedly refer to it. The problem, I feel, is the moralising that comes with it. It is a policy for faster access to the internets, not a grand challenge in the style and scope of the Snowy Mountains Hydro scheme. Lives should not, one hopes, be risked in the cable installation (I shall not mention pink batts). A new way of life will not be established afterwards. We who have travelled to Europe or Japan or Vietnam for chrissakes will be familiar with zippy internets. It's good. Let's have some. But let's not suggest that this is something the nation should stand and salute to.

Something lost from the Latham debacle of 2004 comes to mind thanks to the brawling nutbags latest media appearances. I like Latham a little. Reading his diaries gives a good impression of someone able to be absolutely lucid one moment, barking nuts the next. He might be right on Rudd, or he might be so overwhelmed by envy at Rudd's success in place of his own that even Rudd's downfall won't bring succour. Either way, like Keating's disembowelment in 1996 which meant that Labor was taught, like a beaten dog, to eschew big picture stuff, Latham's touch-up in 04 meant that lines on so-called class politics were not to be crossed. It was a great failure of his and of Labor's more generally that an argument against private schools having freshly furnished polo fields installed in place of state schools having, say, adequate heating, never took hold. How this idea that unfairness, that most unAustralian trait, was to be ignored in place of aspirationalism, was partly their fault. It should be a piece of piss. So as much as his circuit-breaking skill is admired, Latham would be more useful turning his acid on himself and the failures of his moment that mire the party now- too afraid to go big. Gillard is a product of this small-target approach, and Cheryl Kernot's idea to run for the Senate on a 'change politics' platform, whilst almost certainly doomed, will pick up steam if it continues. Not enough to elect Cheryl one suspects (hasn't she had enough rejection?), but it will come if our politics stays small.

AND LATER
Just when you thought he couldn't distract Gillard any more- off he shoots to have his gall bladder removed. Get well soon Kevin. They need you. Maybe. Maybe once you go national the nation will be reminded of why they began to hate you and all the warmth that your final, still incedible speech garnered will dissipate. Maybe. David Speers, fast becoming a proper star of the campaign, tweeted the best line- "Rudd should also get the stitches taken out of his back while he's there."

LATER STILL
Nielson poll published late has Labor 48, LNP 52, 2 party. Jesus.

To conclude, here's Julie Bishop lecturing a garden gnome from Yes We Canberra.

Day 13- Shhhhhh....

2010-07-29T20:02:00.000+10:00

Readers, I've tried. All day there have been notes. Collation of funny images. An eagle eye tuned to these narcotic 24hr news services we are just so lucky to have in this country. But today, after the excitement of yesterday, I have nothing. Law and order? Knuckledusters and knives? Sure, there's a good gag to be had with our fresh PM actually saying, out loud, that 'no-one should be walking around with a knife...' *cue sideways look to camera, raised eyebrow, cutaway to Mark Arbib and Bill Shorten, etc*, but seriously. This small target bullshit is.... bullshit.

Best lines of the day, and perhaps of the last 13 days, come from John Keane's interview on PM. Keane is the author of The Life and Death of Democracy, one of those vast books that sit on my shelf mocking me (Yes, I will read you, one day. But for the moment I'm in the middle of a life, alright?). His take on this being a supermarket election is right on. Have a listen.

Maybe there'll be something affecting the future of the nation offered tomorrow. Something beyond the marginals, something untested by a billion focus groups. Maybe. In the meantime, once you're done with Keane, go for Clarke and Dawe. Do so reasonably quickly. Bless them.

Day 12- Damages

2010-07-28T09:22:00.018+10:00

Has the PM found Jesus at last? Via Fairfax.

So, things got interesting. Michelle Grattan calls it a “systematic attempt from within her own party to blow her campaign out of the water.” Tory Maguire wondered "could someone from inside Cabinet be trying to destabilise the PM?" And the Prime Minister might well have wondered if she was being ratfucked.

It doesn’t matter if it’s true, though we can expect that it is, as a flat denial was not offered. Either way, the damage is done. It’s perfect for opponents, be they internal or Abbott-lead, going straight to ‘fears’ about both Gillard’s ‘suitability’ (tip for future female politicos- be married, have children), but also exposing her as a political operator. Not that anyone else in the game isn’t. But in a leadership vacuum, it’s all the more telling. And on ideas that hit at the core of the electorate, issues affecting a better way of life, to be seen to be playing politics is trouble. Whoever they are, they knew how to push the button, and the button has well and truly been pushed. Gillard will spend today mopping up, and it might come to nought. Was it Rudd? Was it Rudd’s people? Who is reckless enough to risk defeat, and a defeat to Abbott, a party that was meant to be out of power for 10+ years if you read the editorials of late 2009? Who believes in something that much, and what is it they believe in- themselves? Himself? Kevin? Explaining needs to be done.

Rudd has, it should be noted, issued a denial- of sorts. A statement released last night reads "Mr Rudd has not made, nor will he make, comment on Cabinet processes or deliberations." Which is different from saying "I did not leak that leak", but fair enough. That's what we're getting. Both Peter Hartcher from the SMH and Laurie Oakes have said that the leak was not from the other side, but a source within the Government. Today's question is who- if not Rudd (still not a believable option, but...), then who. Tanner is leaving, but it couldn't be Tanner. Who?! I demand an answer!

Update 9:40 Gillard takes to the stage in Adelaide, viewed by a cameraphone that drops in and out on Sky News. She says she wants to address the allegations directly, not 'shilly-shally' (Adelaide slang?). She joined the party because she believes in fairness, for the old and for the parents.

She then spins the leak as a process of fiscal responsibility- ensuring that everything was covered in the budget before anything was launched into, paid parental leave or pension increases. This is the reason she 'asked questions'. She attempts to bed down the belief question, and seems utterly believable in this, but this is not the denial the newscycle wants. Won't play on who might've leaked it. Says that she didn't issue anything substantial last night because some things are better delivered in person.

9:53 She says that it amazes her that people might think she wouldn't support this scheme considering 'who I am, what I have done with my life'. This is the point though, isn't it- in the bit of Australia that is concerned about the boats, Gillard is not old and not a mother. Horrible things are being played on. She is attempting to nullify. Says that the Government's money isn't theirs- it's the nation's, and she has to be responsible. But that doesn't mean she doesn't believe. Will 'they' believe?

9:56 Sky news link falls over- ABC24 is up. Thank you ABC!

9:57 'Kevin Rudd will be offered a ministry in my cabinet.' My cabinet under the stairs, where I will keep him bound with electrical tape and feed him a dog biscuit every second day.

9:59 'Look at Mr Abbott and the bind he's in with paid parental leave.' Ummm, not, it's you in the bind Prime Minister.

9:59 'I can't be easily confused with Laure Oakes.' Hmmm. I have no idea of who the source of the leak is. Let's call Julian Assange.

10:00 'I didn't ask Wayne Swan to mount an investigation' (Swannie? Hmmmmmm).

10:01 'Of course I'm angry. But I'm not gonna be diverted by it.' Except for now, doing this.

10:02 'I supported these measures because they were affordable. If they were not, I wouldn't have supported them, and I won't apologise for that. I'm not a soft option.'

10:03 'I did not ask Wayne Swan to have a word about this matter'. Flat denial that. Journos make note to follow up.

10:07 'My focus remains on the choices for Australians- it has become fashionable to say this campaign has become a boring one.' Till today it was...

10:09 A question on schools stimulus. Snowball? Gillard addresses with vigour.

10:13 Was as much rigour applied to the NBN funding? Gillard says yes, I was absolutely satisfied. Hooks are being baited.

10:14 'Abbott is turning his face against modernity'

10:15 'I'll have something to say about water later today'. Water torture.

10:17 'All I can is tell the truth, tell you what I believe and that is what I've done today'. Fin.

Enough?

Update 10:55 Katherine Murphy of the SMH liked what she saw this morning. It'll be interesting to see how shared this sentiment is.

Update 11:09 Abbott, Hockey and some other bloke take to a very prime ministerial looking lectern to announce a cut in the company tax rate- from 29% to 28.5%. Rolling with momentum, getting it done, etc etc. And they're cutting without a mining tax. It's a good line, though the figure itself is a little too transparent.

Update 11:31 Inflation is up .06%, taking it out of the target range. Sky news reports that this would make a rate rise next week very likely, but the SMH says it is less than predicted and therefore a rate rise would be unlikely. Labor will prefer the Fairfax vision.

Update 1:21 Sky News now saying that a rate rise is unlikely. Labor exhale.

Update 1:34 Nice piece from Tony Wright on the who the rat is doing the fucking, with an even better graphic. The Kevin solution is too clean, he and various sources suggest. Wright writes that "One current minister and one less senior Labor MP are suspected by those who place credence in this theory."

Shorten? Combet? Macklin? Ellis, K? Conroy? This guy?

Peter Hartcher agrees with Katherine Murphy's assessment of the Pm's performance, but suggests that there are big issues remaining. Likewise, various pundits and opposition toads are wondering whether the same fiscal scrutiny was applied to the school stimulus and the pink batt scenario. It's a good line. But Gillard's performance might be, if not the story of the day, certainly a contender.

Having said that, this was meant to be free kick day for the Government, not the Opp. The August Woman's Weekly hit the shelves today, with cover star Jules La Rang all dolled up. Just the kind of the publicity Labor wanted, hitting the ladies of middle Australia. One might wonder what they're thinking when they open their mag now, instead of what might've been if ~~KevinConroyShorten~~ the leaker had kept their valve shut.

Day 11- Good with Women

2010-07-27T22:08:00.003+10:00

Mental health policy has to wait, the people of Nauru are ready to receive asylum seekers but don’t nessecerily want to sign up the UNHCR, the Coalition will preference mothers over fathers through their paid parental leave scheme, so on, etc. Announcements are drip-fed, press conferences are called and dutifully reported. Signifying little.

So, in light of anything satisfactorily engaging/visionary, lets look at some pictures of women.

Type ‘Tony Abbott’s d’ into Google and it will give you an option ‘Tony Abbott’s daughters are hot’. Maybe a staffer was typing another word starting with d, saw what came up, got an idea. Because Tony’s ‘trouble with women’ fix hit phase 2 today. His wife was trotted out for phase 1 yesterday, and today it’s the lovely Louise. Her special treat? A trip to the fishmongers.

Having his daughter by his side may well indicate to someone somewhere that he is able to be in a room with a woman, but the image of his daughter does, I feel, do 2 things more effectively. 1- it reminds us of that creepy shit he spouted about the virginity of his kids. * Secondly, it goes to further expressing his virility- not only does the man precinct work, but it produces lookers like this.

It’s already tired, and won’t last. Not that it’s new. Maybe the sight of Bristol Palin helped supporters of her Mom during Election 2008.

Maybe that’s a stretch. In 2004 John Kerry introduced planet Earth to his daughter, flashbulbs and all.

She either didn’t quite understand the powerful combination of paparazzi flash and a lack of undergarment, or she understood it and dug it. Either way, this is the enduring image of Alexandra Kerry. Having said that, at least she’s not the gay daughter of a conservative ‘maverick’

Point being, kids of politicians might be hot, or kinda appealing, or not entirely disgusting on the eye. Doesn’t matter. They’ve got fuck all to do with policy. Not that that matters in EnforcedDecision2010.

Women have had an interesting day. Penny Wong put up a heartfelt defence of the line she has to toe as a gay woman in a party that doesn't support gay marriage on Q&A, brilliantly and powerfully supported by Richo, while the PM fielded questions about moving her de-facto into the Lodge should she win, living in taxpayer funded sin. She copped a question on the size of her earlobes as well. A question not asked of her opponent- I guess because the answer is blindingly obvious.

Meanwhile in Queensland, someone forgot to put the Labor party logo on their campaign material.

Oops! How clumsy!

And at 7pm, a report from the Walrus, Laurie Oakes, who has it from a close Labor source that Gillard opposed Labor’s paid parental leave scheme. There is a rat in the ranks.

This is not going to go down well.

*"I think I would say to my daughters if they were to ask me this question ... it is the greatest gift that you can give someone, the ultimate gift of giving, and don't give it to someone lightly," he said.

Day 10- We'll have the drunk chicken, hold the boats

2010-07-26T14:25:00.003+10:00

The pundits are torn on who won the debate, but united on how uninspiring the spectacle was. 1.245 million watched on Ch 7 and 1.22m on 9, so the thing wasn’t a complete disaster, but ratings don’t indicate viewer satisfaction levels. On the expectation front Abbott seems to have received better press, for not eating his own shoe or letting rip or attacking Malcolm Farr with the butt of a golf club or something. Polls look better for the Coalition this morning, with Galaxy giving it to Labor 52-48 on 2-party. Exactly where the poll was when Kevin got rolled. Mark Arbib hasn’t been sighted.

Around lunch we learn that the mining tax ads will re-commence on Wednesday. The little guys aren’t happy- they were getting so much attention, then they’re told that the issue has been politically nullified. What to do? Get on TV. Will it do anything? We’ll see. But if my expert branding services were being solicited, I’d suggest that the public has had its run with the issue, and is indeed moving forward. Anything further will have to be clear and well explained to not seem greedy and work against the industry as a whole. If miners say that the tax will encourage more boats, well then, that’s a different story.

Swannie gets on the tele around 2pm to croakily yet whinily voice opposition to what he’s calling the Coles & Woolies tax, otherwise known as the Oppositions proposed changes to the company tax. See, Swannies on a winner here. You know what I’m thinking don’t you?! Coles is a national icon now. Because it’s where you go if you want to shop like a Masterchef! That’s right! Forget farmers markets and the fresh organics that many of the proper chefs featured in that same program prefer (even Sean of Seans Panorama fricken grows his own produce, kills it, then brings it down from Katoomba to cook it at North Bondi and make people like me voice inappropriate levels of pleasure in public cos his food is so dang on the money) - to be a Masterchef, go for the recently unfrozen, ‘mature’ packaged shit that Coles provides (to Masterchef, gratis). So a tax on Coles (Woolies has been included I guess to throw hard boiled journos off the scent, but you don’t fool me Swannie!) is a tax on Masterchef! More to the point, it’s a tax on following our dreams. Because we just know that if we get a chance, with the guidance of our deceased nanna/father/etc looking over us, if we get a chance to cook from the heart, using only the freshest ingredients Coles can provide, then anything is possible. A tax on Coles is a tax on everything that we have come to stand for in 2009/10. Dreams. Heart. Drunken Chicken.

INTO THE BELLY
To 7:30Reportland travels Tony, and unscathed he emerges. Kerry boxed with precise, needling jabs, but Abbott sucked them up. Getting through one of these without scandal counts as a win in this climate, so Abbott can count this as a little victory. Today has easily been his best of the campaign- poll bumps, a debate that remains too close to call and too dull to remember, and the first real evidence of this mindless 'stop the boats' mantra biting widely. Pre interview, Heather Hewitt's wrap-up of the day focussed on Abbott's wife hitting the trail, putting his comments in the debate on family and gender into clear focus (I was pretty-well catatonic by that point during the debate, typing through muscle reflex only). That godless childless woman taunts middle Oz not only by being barren, but in choosing a 'partner' who cuts hair. A haircutter! Shorthand for poofter! She's not a closet poofter too is she? Stone the slopes! So this family guff might work too. And what will that say about us, Australia?

Day 9- Jim & Jane, never the twain..

2010-07-26T10:09:00.003+10:00

I wake too early, and the first politico I see is my ol ~~chub~~ chum, Jumping Jiving Joe of the perpetually high pitched defence. He is the guest of Laurie Oakes- a caterer’s dilemma, but it makes for some classic whiny Joe moments.

Hockey, like Swan, has a terrible Achilles of making the most benign question sound like an attack, by virtue of the slightly harassed ‘now let me put this matter to bed’ tone they both seem unable to shake. Joe has more charm than Swan- indeed, the block of moist wood I just put on the fire has more charm than Swan- but he hasn’t been able to completely capitalise on his involvement in the Class of Sunrise circa mid 2000s like his old sparring partner, our old PM. Whether he’s too thick to understand that his charms are dissipated by this defensiveness o thinks that in general his public persona is A-Ok I don’t know. But this, combined with the bully-boy stuff he flings in the chamber doesn’t help his chances of leading the Coalition to a loss in 2013.

Abbott, fresh from proclaiming that he’s planning his move to the Lodge in late August in spite of what the people think, announces a cut to immigration. Except that apparently its not- the number Abbott proffers (170 000) is what is projected in the coming years. So Abbott, says Labor, is announcing Labor policy for Labor. Good on him.

The numbers don’t really matter- it’s the saying of the sentence that counts, sureing up the base, giving Abbott something to speak on which we know he believes in. That, and his additional ‘we should having more children’ line sits well with public persona. He hasn’t, at this point, stated that to help the nation bear more children he’ll be banning all abortions and making contraception illegal, but maybe he’s saving that for a bump in the final week. A boss of mine once said that the baby bonus of the Howard/Costello Gov will result, 10-15 years from now, in the biggest spike in bogans in our history. Like the argument in Freakonomics detailing lower crime rates in the early 1990s to the prevalence of safer, legal abortion in the 1970s, the bogan spike seems a good bet, for the baby bonus wasn’t always taken up by the folk occupying the higher IQ brackets. It might be a little crass to state, but does it not make sense?

It’s certainly more believable than Penny Wong’s statements on gay marriage. Maybe she is against it, for reasons unknowable. But this stuff is trite, and it’s a shame that both party political business and the news cycle unearth these tales. Does nothing for Wong’s public image and nothing for the Labor party. Though maybe it does something for the debate, indicating that it has to go big, bigger than the 2 party processes and into the community, for there to be change on that front. Hell’s, why not establish a community assembly?

The Great Inflate

At 6:30 we settle in, and at 6:33 the worm heads south- the prompt? The first utterence of the term moving forward. Gillard looks glassy and cracks an advisor-approved smile early, and when she discusses what she actually means by moving forward the worm moves up. Her hands are distracting, but her manner is personable and it opens well.

A note on the worm- or worms, for we have a male worm and a female, as well as an average. Let’s call the male worm Jim, the lady worm Jane.

6:36 Abbott hits the screen squinting, and the female worm plunges, matching the male. But the worm doesn’t go as cold as it did against Rudd back in May. In the opener he keeps above the line, and occasionally hits the middle-highs. Until he calls the Gov hopeless, and women plunge sub-line. He attacks on boat people and climate change, and the average flatlines low. He looks nervous, stumbles on a few weasel words.

6:40- Keep your hands still Julia. Jesus. Jim is very low, Jane mid highs.

6:44 Chris Uhlmann at his best- respectful, removed from the obvious, yet tough as nails. Laurie Oakes might’ve said ‘can you indicate how you’re not some kind of whipped hack at the behest of your party/faction/etc’ , but not Uhlmann. He gives a little rope, but has eyes that say ‘don’t fuck with me’.

David Speers takes the cue from Uhlmann for a follow up on MySchools. The worm goes south, especially Jim. The journos are winning early points.

6:48 Abbott gets a crack at Uhlmann’s question and has benefited from everyone forgetting the thrust of it. Jane loves his riff on the parental leave plan, and Jim isn’t far behind. Calls it ‘visionary social change'. Can’t tell if the worm is capable of chuckling.

6:50 Laura Tingle has one for Abbott re immigration. Abbott says he is levelling with the Aus people, being fair dinkum about population growth. The worm is ok with it, not crazy excited, but ok.

6:52 Gillard responds and calls Tony on immigration- pretty clever, but it’s a trick she says. Jane loves it. Jim isn’t quite sure. The term ‘fair dinkum’ is used a further 326 times within about 42 seconds.

6:53 Tony bounces it back- why didn’t you say this last week about numbers coming down to 170 000? Julia says ‘huh? Whatever, fool’. Jane goes crazy high. Jim remains close to the middle. Few more fair dinkums sprinkled like a nervous chef seasoning an omelette he hasn’t cooked with his heart and soul, an omlette that reminds him of his grandmother, who used to cook omlettes and I’m sure is watching now, proud, but concerned about the amount of paprika. My mind has wandered a little.

6:55 Mal Farr on asylum- reasonable timeframe for a processing centre opening? Gillard says there’s no quick fix. Jim and Jane join wormy hands and go south for a bit before Jane rethinks and heads to Noosa. Jim remains in Beechworth/ Ballarat.

6:57 Abbott says Malcolm, lets be fair dinkum, and the worm turns downward. It’s revived when he says Timor will never come on line. Jim heads toward Townsville.

6:58 Ullmannn! Ask if Abbott should be fair dinkum. re 90% of boatfolk detainees winning visas- the worm is nervous, but gets a kick out of Abbott just saying ‘stop the boats’ I’m voting Uhlmann, Speers in the Senate.

6:59 Gillard calls Abbott naïve. Worm not likee. She then calls people smugglers evil and the worm turns. Attempts to blow the Nauru question out of the water (!) by noting its caretaker Gov. Almost succeeds.

7:02 Tingle on the economy. Positive worm. Happy worm. Surplus by 2013. Hooray. Whatever.

Verdict so far- too close to call. Fair dinkum

7:03 Speers f/up on economy- if we double dip will you stimulate? PM- not for me to say. Then Speers chases Gillard off the podium while the Benny Hill theme plays.

7:04 Abbott on economy- ‘Gov claims credit, but it was us! Honest’. Jim goes up for a high five. Jane demurs.

Abbott then hits the school halls, Jim goes crazy, Jane not far behind. A problem for the Gov.

7:05 Doesn’t Mal Farr scrub up nice? Asks about Groceries. Abbott trashes grocery watch, says we’ll get debt and deficit under control. Again, when asked what he’d actually do, he shapes away in flight.

7:08 Julia looks a little harried. When she lists what this Gov has done, it don’t sound so good. Not a program full of inspiration, nor effective implementation.

7:09 Uhlmann on carbon and delay. Jim heads south to Launceston, Jane remains midway on the map (which I have invented and is not to national scale. Plus, Canberra is the centre of everything. That’s just how it is, losers) in Canberra. Maybe in Manuka, looking for Jim. But he’s gone Jane, gone! Julia says we’re not gonna kid people, we need a cap on carbon pollution. Uh huh. I’m going to lead to get a community consenses. Jane Sydney, Jim Bendigo.

7:11 Speers follows up- Gillard flounders. Worst section of the night for her so far.

7:12 Abbott calls it a complete failure of leadership. Jim loves it. Jane says yeah, you might be right.

Point? Climate change has been bungled by JG. The worm says so.

7:13 Tingle on IR, company tax et al. Abbott says he respects the electorate. Worm says, what, me! Oh, he likes me! Worm blushes.

7:15 Gillard in response, calls it farce, worm is low. Gillard says Tony believes in workchoices. Jane says fuck you Jim, you’re stoopid. Jim says stoopid? I just pooped, that’s how stoopid. Where are my hands? Oh, there they are! I’ve had them on all this time! What’s that smell?

7:17 Farr looks bored. Asks a question about awards and small business etc. Gillard says fair work gets balance right. Semi positive worm. Julia’s hands go big. She’s filling the screen like my old art tutors told me to fill the canvas. My paintings were often as shit.

7:18 Abbott says fair work is not perfect, but we need to respect the people. I.e. really, I’m not gonna implement Workchoices. I’m not.

7:20 Uhlmann on Rudd- how many times did you warn Rudd before you knifed him? Ouch. JG says I’m not talking. Down the worm goes. This is much worse than I thought for JG- she’s playing friendly, and looks smaller. She’s been stage managed by folk who’d be fired from an Iranian soap opera.

7:21 Turns it back on Abbott-gets a bump

Speers f/up JG, re not canvassing Rudd. Jim gets a thermal pair of pants on and goes south.

7:22- Abbott says same shit different face, bangs his mic. Jim ditches thermals, dons boardies. Or dickstickers.

7:23 Tingle on Afghanistan- 2014 exit Abbott- I love troops. They should stay. Worm goes yeah! USA! JG says my pos is same as Rudd. Worm dip! Explains position, worm hop! Getting the job done- worm hop.

7:25 Closing- JG this was a good discussion! JG says as PM I would never cut school cash. Jim and Jane say good. Same on hospitals. And NBN. Schools, healthcare, NBN. I’m gonna cut the company tax rate. We are a confident optimistic people. I believe in your decency. Jesus. Fair dinkum. Etc.

7:28 Abbott action contract. Jim and Jan swap. Says tonight was the chance for the gov to explain why it should be re-elected- worm dives. 6 years of pink batts and school halls, it’ll just-get-worse. Worms stays down. Says it’s not about Gender- brave! Abbott loses on the closer.

Ch 7 says Labor 53-47. Australia says screw you two, let’s watch Masterchef.

Day 8- Sans Belief

2010-07-25T17:39:00.004+10:00

The community assembly idea still rankles, but again, it seems difficult to make sense of something that contains little to no sense in the first place. Perhaps it just indicates where this election is being fought, and for who- the marginals of WA & QLD. Surely that’s what it is for, to delay the immediate action which might concern some of the dullards in the seats Labor needs to win, instead of the seats it think it has in the bag, or even, like, the nation as a whole, which in the olden days before you and I were born, was what the Government would concern itself with- like, Governing the whole country. I know, weird right?

Maybe Abbott feels the derision toward the assembly in the wind. Or maybe he’s feeling ill, because something has gotten to him. In front of a friendly West Australian crowd last night, he tells us that he will win Election 2010. The polls, the populace, his own campaign office and any sentient being capable of appreciating common sense at 20 paces may disagree, but Tony feels the need to share this information less than one week into a campaign which he has unquestionably been losing so far. Maybe he knows something we don’t. Or maybe there’s a voice in his head feeding him special messages from on high.

If so, then he’d resemble a candidate of his side-David Barker, candidate for Chifley, whose physical appearance I will not comment on for fear of less than divine retribution, but will undoubted remind you of a character from a George Lucas film that didn’t suck, perhaps a character that rhymes with Slabba the Fut. Mr Barker used his Facebook page to state that ‘When I get in I will give my votes, all of them, to God who is on the side of the Liberal Right.’’ (Thus bringing the all powerful status of the Christian God into doubt, something that probably should be looked into by a committee in this next Parliament) But of course there’s more- while Barker is not against Muslims per se (he believed that everyone should be entitled to their beliefs), he does think that there shouldn’t be a Muslim, such as his Labor opponent in Chifley, Ed Husic, in our Parliament, saying ‘I don’t believe that’s exactly in line with what we believe as Australians.’’ Also, to conclude his holy trinity of horseshit, he’s a little annoyed at having an atheist as Prime Minster. His reward for the outing of his views? Disendorsement, with Abbott saying that “he’s gone, he’s finished” Barker’s replacement? Why, it’s only a woman named Venus Priest. Oh I shit thee not.

Day 7- Community Claptrap

2010-07-23T13:54:00.005+10:00

Leadership is tricky, isn’t it? You want to seem like you’re in control without being too controlling. You want to inspire, but the act of doing so can seem a bit pushy. Tough balance. And election campaigns are about offending the people you can afford to offend.

Maybe we get it wrong when we assume that leaders of political parties are there to lead. Maybe the term is wrong. Let’s replace 'Party Leader’ with 'Chairperson-in-Chief'. Someone who might helm a citizens assembly, say.

This idea, the one that will drive climate change policy (and here I was thinking that the Rudd Government actually had a mandate post 2007 to get it done, but clearly I’m foolin’) is one I can’t pin down on these light emitting pages. Perhaps because it’s just too silly. Sillier than a monkey thirsty for its wee. Sillier than the opposition leader (sorry-how about 'chief nutbag of the other lot')plucking a duck. There will be better writers doing hatchet jobs right now on blogs and in papers, and they are right to do so. The citizens assembly is called the Parliament. Hurry the fuck up and sort something out.

Nothing, however, is quite as silly as a student politician. Maybe there’s money in writing a student politician handbook in the post tweet age, maybe subtitled 'How not to be so hilariously lame as to bring support to whatever you’re opposing, whatever you’re not’.

Maybe this chap here, PhD Candidate Brad Smith, who launched a flailing, pathetic attack on the PM in Brisbane this morning, was acting out of pure frustration, a bodily articulation of disappointment and anger. Or maybe, moments before he lurched beyond the barricades, he was imaging his visage on a billion t shirts, the Che of the Sunshine State.

Either way, he’s a joke now, a momentary meme that does nothing for the wider cause. A note to student politicians- even if I agree with you, chances are that I hate you. And I’m not alone- not even close. Because intelligent discussion comes after quiet contemplation and wide reading. It’s tough to get ahead as a student poli if you’re quietly thinking, assessing the whole picture. It’s ambition really, innit? Goes some way to explaining the quality of sitting members we get. Maybe a randomly selected posse of 150 citizens will be a better way to get good policy after all.

Rudd offers a statement early afternoon, stating that he takes security real serious like, and that he’d only send an underling if he was physically unable to attend himself. Fair enough, right? Sometimes I’m too drunk or depressed or attached to a mountain stage of Le Tour to get out of my chair- if something needs doing, I just yell out for someone else to do it. Here’s how I reckon it went.

Office lackey: Prime Minister, you’re due at the security briefing

Kev: (Long groan). Must I?

Office lackey: ummmm… am I allowed to answer honestly without either being yelled at or met by the long passive aggressive silence David Marr is planning to write about in the Quarterly Essay that will speed up your eventual demise?

Kev: (long passive aggressive silence)…. Alistair!

(Alistair bounds in, all young and youthful like)

Alistair: Yes Prime Minster?

Kevin: No punning

Alistair: My apologies Prime Minister

Kevin: wǒzuìyù mián

Alistair: Sir?

Kevin: That’s mandarin for I’m drunk and don’t want to go

Alistair: would you like me to go in your place?

Kevin: (has fallen asleep).

Alistair: Ok.

Rudd, just before the security briefing. Via News Ltd.

Day 6- Suspension

2010-07-22T20:28:00.001+10:00

In Canberra, we wait with latte breath as a ranga attempts to overcome an idiot and a crafty nerd. Said ranga, whilst not 100% likeable, certainly has... something about her (cue rolling of my significant others eyes). It's a good thing that we have this contest to occupy our simple minds, for otherwise we'd have to focus on that other threeway, the election- death by dullness.

It has been an exciting couple of months. Sportsfans such as myself have had the madness of Le Tour to ease the loss of the World Cup, but now Le Tour winds toward Paris, what will satisfy our hungry souls? It will not, on early form, be the battle for the middle ground, Enforced Decision 2010.

Each day I write asking for colour, inspiration, boldness, a little leadership. And the call remains unanswered. For drama, we have to fold our newspapers and squint.

Thanks Pete!

Festivities were suspended today so that both leaders could attend the funeral of another soldier killed in Afghanistan. In place of La Rang and the Winger, the bit part players, bless them, tried to give the campaign a little shake.Enter the twig.

Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest, the billionaire of the people (look- he’s wearing hi-vis! He’s one of us…), is threatening to re-light the miners ad campaign. The Twig says that the deal with the big three mining companies leaves the little guys, like Fortescue (!), out in the cold. He also says that the Greens are a problem, as they may hold the balance etc etc, but then, the Twig offers something magnificent, and well beyond the pale. He suggest that Bob Brown get out of his ‘chaffuer driven’ car and take a walk from the luxury of Parliament House down to the tent embassy of ‘our indigenous brothers and sisters’ and spend a night among them, for we’ll all be living in tents with a challenged mining industry.

To recap- Australia’s richest man implores the Greens leader to stop larging it, and go down to the tent Embassy for a little burst of reality.

Here is a photograph of a monkey drinking its own urine to best reflect the absurdity of this situation.

Rudd, also a support act now, continues to make news. Leaked memos point toward a lax attitude toward national security committee meetings, sometimes sending his wunderkind chief advisor Alistair Jordon in his place. But that's not news as such- it's another reason why he's no longer in the big chair. The big news is that Krudd has indeed been offered a job with the UN, as their chief backdown specialist on climate change. But it's ok, as it's only a part time gig. With the UN. Nothing to see here, right Kev? Right?

Mark Latham calls Gillard a dirty liar for fudging the real thrust of her sustainable Aus/immigration line, and Jumping Joe Hockey, desparate to regain some ground after being beaten up by Red Kerry last night, decides to quote the brawler from Green Valley. The nation’s ear are dead to both these rotund shrieking geese, but good on em for having a go.

WITH WHAT DO WE OCCUPY OURSELVES?

In suspension mode, I turn to the internets to provide some stimulation/ something annoying enough to write about it, and I find it at the Drum. Jonathon Holmes, thankfully stripped, in print, of those ridiculous, hammy mugging gestures that undermine his hosting on MediaWatch, reports on the capital, my home and workplace (in that order). He mis-spells Aussies, but in the main his point is well made. The election affects people a long way, mentally as well as physically, beyond the state circle, the forcefield on the hill.

Holmes speaks here mainly of the press gallery, but allow me a moment to speak of the house itself, and the people who work, as I do, in offices lining the long halls. I’m a newbie here, in an area that serves the business of the House, the chamber and the committees and so on. A non partisan precinct, where politics is spoken of with some of the detachment Holmes mentions, but with vigour and pleasure too- the game is important, compelling, and while the day to day stuff doesn’t affect the work done here too much, the processes so that day to day to occur is a serious business. My experience, completed closeted as it is, is of a pack of highly intelligent people who work with a quiet purpose- ensuring that, regardless of who is at the wheel (and there is, it seems, a consensus view that while the two majors are not idenitical as such, it is a case of same shit different suit), democracy is something worth working for. In the House of Reps, people work so that process can take place as smoothly as possible. There will be those who work these halls who are far less wide-eyed than I, who would report on office dynamics and frustrations and so on. Show me a workplace that doesn’t have those issues. But, isolated as we may be, people here enjoy the process, and work at making it work.

Also on the Drum, Barrie Cassidy writes well of Abbott’s shaky start. It’s been a bad week for Abbott. But, to cop another sporting analogy, you’d want to have your worst week at the start of the tournament. Assuming you survive, what matters is your form at the end. And perhaps Abbott, after a shocking 2007 campaign, has gone as low as he’s gonna go. Bob Ellis thinks there's trouble ahead. Bob hates Julia, and is never a trustworthy source. But he's worth considering. Everyone is worth considering. Up to a point. After all, the ranga, former Lawyer and branded other woman Claire got booted from the chef tonight. You just never know...

Day 5- Quality

2010-07-22T09:30:00.005+10:00

This here daily broadcast of meaningless guff was interrupted by my participation, at the expense of the Australian Public Service and therefore you, in a course on Proofreading and Editing. No longer at my desk in the People's House, Capital Hill Canberra, I was instead attuned to plain English, direct messages and clear, correct communications. A world away from EnforcedDecision2010.

Maybe moving forward wasn’t such a clever way to indicate progress while infer that the opposition are a throwback- maybe it was just wishful thinking. Because the morning headlines are to do with boats and industrial reform. This could be election 2007, or 2004, or maybe even 2001. All you need to do, when writing the history, is replace key words. Tampa with… whatever the name of the latest skiff is. Over 90 boatpeople in 48 hours. This is what Labor spin monkeys might describe as a ‘headache’.

Labor had a vast opportunity in 2007. Remember those days of wine and excitement? Of apologies and hope springing Kevin? A vast opportunity which they blew. Here’s the thesis.
Every Government, so goes the popular thinking, gets 100 days. At least, that's what is said in the West Wing. And I don't remember what Jed Bartlett did in his 100, but the thinking goes that every Government can strike in that time, be as bold as a Government can be, because after that compromise and difficulty and turmoil and disaster and death are all they have to look to forward to.

So in those 100 days, Kevin apologised and signed Kyoto. He hosted the 20:20 thinkathon and flung some ideas around. And not much else. This is was before the GFC, and editorials were starting, toward the end of the 100, to point toward the lack of a Rudd narrative. We wondered, even then, what he stood for.

It was this timeframe where, I dutifully and sadly and humbly suggest, he could have done something huge and overdue. Redefine the terms by which we've come to understand the refugee issue. Clearly indicate the political game Howard played in 2001. Detail the cost, economic and emotional, of detaining those who had fled their homelands. Spell out the UNHCR doctrine, and why it exists. Explain that terror is not something that will arrive by leaky craft, but is likely to begin at home (hello 7/7 and several foiled attacks that we know of since).

I write this, friends and strangers, not just as a bleeding heart, but as a practicalist. Think about it. Look at the stats. Consider even, with your Derridian hat on, the foolishness of the language we glibly use. Illegal immigrants. These people await processing. And their illegality can only be proven once their refugee status has been denied (remember that 90+% of these who, after enduring sometimes years in these detention centres, were granted full access). They are within their rights to apply. And if their application is rejected, they are to return. This is a basic twisting of the language to reflect a Legal nonsense, and Labor then, under Beazley, couldn't battle the tide of backward fucktards who got scared when the Coalition said boo. And in those 100 days of Kevin, that period where the Australia of Howard was being forgotten and a country turned toward its new geek-in-charge and said 'alright! What now!', he could’ve so clearly and easily said 'Australia- you've been sold a lie. Here's how...’ And two things would've happened. One- the nation would've realised that this issue is a human one. And two- Labor would never have had to fight the asylum seeker issue in a campaign again. It would’ve neutralised a critical attack weapon against it. To again abuse a term of the writer I so clearly mimic here, prove that I lie.

But as we know, Kevin lacked the ability to explain the vision thing, and here we are. A boat arrives. 43 people seek asylum. Then another. Perhaps a future terrorist or a clan thereof, occupy that boat and perhaps waffle like that scribed above will look thoroughly stupid. Or perhaps these are hopeful and desperate people who should be listened to like the others and we, for not listening well and having the skill to define the argument in terms which reflect a better, smarter and more decent humanity are lessened by all this.

NOT THAT THE OTHER LOT ARE WINNING

Abbott however, isn’t doing so well himself. Even if a ‘leading academic’ cleared him of the accusation levelled by Craig Emerson re the Coalitions proposal to blah blah via blah would actually make that scrap of paper Abbott signed on Monday as worthless as everybody assumed it was anyway. Something about money and law and industrial relations. Same old. The detail doesn't matter, because the link between Abbott and IR reform is stuck the public brain now- Abbott and WorkChoices remain peas in the ideological pod. Will he shake the smell by late August?

Elsewhere, we get a Labor candidate linking Abbott to suicide. Yep. This is too stupid to comment on, even for me. Gillard should disendorse. At this stage, she hasn't. The idea, Julia, again fro the Jed Bartlett scholl of politicing, is that you take out the trash. Take it out! Not let it linger in the hallway, where it might repeat on you later.

Meanwhile, in Griffith...

The ABC reported on PM that Journalists were told to meet the former PM at the Cooperoo Primary School at midday. Once there, The Ruddbot ignored them. For 20 minutes.

His only words to the pack after those 20 minutes were these.

‘Looking at schools like this it’s terrific’

Then he went inside, asked some questions of year 3 students, and back outside

His statement, to the pack he’d requested? It was this.

“I’ll be speaking only about local issues here in Griffith…. As for national issues… I won’t be commenting on those.”

There was aggression in that there voice. And his minders, continued the ABC, made sure the bemused pack knew where he was off to next. What gives Kevin? Are things about to get interesting?

I know…. I’ll get them all to come and watch me do local member stuff… that unedifying degrading small stuff- maybe I’ll start at a school, ask kids questions about a school hall…. Then I won’t take any questions… that’ll ratfuck em… the nightly news will have pictures of me walking around a school, and they’ll go- hey- that’s our Kevin! How sad! We pity him! We’ll demand his sauce bottle be shaken fairly! And they’ll have me back! Ha-ha! And I’ll become the boss again and we’ll go back to the good ol days of making vast statements, backflipping at the first sign of trouble and pushing papers through the office at the rate of one a week. Ha ha! Except that this time it’ll be a gang of three- NO Julia.. But then Lindsey is leaving and Wayne ratfucked me too, so it’ll be a gang of… me! Ha HaAAA! Finally, all those nitwits in my way will be gone!

LATER THAT NIGHT

And Abbott enters the Hey hey arena. Out he runs, arms in the air, making that odd chuckling sound. To boos and cheers. The highlight? (from the SMH)

"I quite like the Julia Gillard accent," he said of the woman, Loretta 'Chat-a-lot-a-little' who was singing about incest.

And speaking about the event later, he says

"Just to be on the same stage as Kylie Minogue was really special."

I am not making this up.

At least the stupidity of this moment covered up Joe Hockey’s mauling in 730Reportland. Kerry took another scalp, and Hockey did more damage to whatever leadership aspirations he once had.

Tune in here. It gets brutal around 11.45. Brutal.

Original images from Fairfax (Rudd), News Ltd (Abbott), & the ABC (Hockey).

Day 4- Cuts, Boats & Celibacy

2010-07-20T16:31:00.003+10:00

There is fallout this morning, from a man dressed only in a pair of dickstickers (in the colour of what Pantone have now patented as Abbott Rouge) who accosted the Opp leader in a mall yesterday afternoon. Apparently the man, one Conrad French, is a Labor staffer on leave, and thought he’d pop in to ask the Opposition if he liked the cut of his Speedos. Nothing political, nothing incendiary. Just one man reaching out to another, perhaps a man of low self esteem, looking to have his sartorial decision authorised by the nation’s most famous model of the smuggler. Something which could be seen as an outstretched arm across the political divide, a Labor man reaching out to his enemy and saying –to heck with politics- this shit is about something more- for I am a man, and you are a man, and we can be men only covering maybe 12 4%** of our bodies in bright stretchy man made fabric together. And for this, the Prime Minister is being asked to sack Mr French.

That’s the spirit! Any sign of colour, Abbott Rouge or Gillard Green (kinda wishy washy, looks like something else in better light), get rid of it! For this may well be the hidden campaign- the one the parties fighting it don’t actually want you to see. That explains the scheduling of the one and only debate - against the most popular TV program in the land, of the year. Worm or no worm, we’ll be watching one amateur cook battle another amateur cook for the right to be Channel 10’s bitch for one year and maybe launch their own range of colanders, thereby seeing the debate in sound bytes on the news, and the Monday news at that, close to 24 hours after the thing screens.

Isn’t this a little odd? If Rudd was at the helm, you might forgive his fear of a gaffe, or his folksy shtick wearing thin (“I remember, as a boy growing up in a place called Queensland, just a little north of here” *Make gesture with raised thumb, move swiftly toward opposite shoulder blade-smile-adjust glasses*). But Gillard is the best dead ball performer in the comp, the Xavi Alonso of the political free kick. Why wouldn’t she take the opportunity to crush Abbott, to do him slowly as another, braver Labor man once said. What’s she frightened of?

Later in the day we learn that the debate is shifted forward one hour, to 6:30 Sunday. Thou shalt not trifle with the scheduled broadcast time of the Masterchef finale. Thou shalt know thy place and work around it.

Abbott manages to quell WorkChoices talk by banging on about the big spending Gov, pledging to cut the cash on Community cabinents and bureacracy. Joe Hockey, alongside Abbott in Melbourne, attempts some zingers (the last Labor surplus was in 1989, when the Bangles ruled the charts… Wayne Swan is to surplus what Paris Hilton is to celibacy) Crappy one liners that get set upon like Joe in a room full of pies. Yum yum. At that presser Latika Burke asks Abbott if he thinks it is right to use a woman’s sexuality to make a political point. It could’ve been messy, but Abbott says something about colourful turns of phrase, of which Hockey is a master, and there’s nothing to see here. Hockey is stock still during this, probably imagining something. Paris or a pie? Too close to call.* The image reappears on Sky Bulletins and gets a run on the Agenda program, but the damage seems minimal. Certainly not the carnage of a man wearing Speedos, who is admonished by the PM later in the morning.

Gillard keeps the pack waiting at a school somewhere and manages to drone on for a bit about Trade certificates, then appears at the Casula Powerhouse at lunch to talk about how Western Sydney is the heart of her sustainable Australia pitch. Can we expect Western Sydney to take the brunt of the hundreds of thousands of people moving to the city? Can we tolerate a future where workers spend more time in traffic than at the dinner table with the kids? No! Are votes really really important out here? Yeah! And is this a horrible simplification of a challenge that should be grasped with spirit and vigour, not played safe? Hmmmm.

Abbott does an exciteable presser in Deakin with a choral accompaniment (and on three- ‘Shame!’) after lunch, going for Gillard’s throat (the most incompetent government in living memory….school uniforms… green preferences… carbon tax….stop the tax… stop the boats…ah….ah…ah). He’s there to spruik Phil Barresi, who lost his seat in 2007 but wants it back. He has, I think, the shiniest bald head sighted in the campaign so far. Buffed like a bowling ball. Amazing.

Then it got a little messy for Mr Abbott.

The SMH reported a stop off at a fruit shop in Deakin, apparently to check out some migration success stories, only to learn that the place where the photo op took place was owned and run by Hayden Tran, who arrived in 1986.... by boat. Oops.

As the night wore on the news was all about Courtney. Poor Courtney. Felled by a mystery box challenge written by the smirking, close to unlikeable Jimmy. Claire of course, she thought it was her turn. She wept. Indeed, she blubbered, and maybe she's as ashamed as Kevin was all those...days ago. But Claire prevailed and Courtney is gone. Gone.

Labor's Laurie Ferguson admits that the party is being 'squeezed on both sides' on boat people (you can substitute squeezed for another doing word if you wish), and the possible rising of interest rates lurks on the horizon, but it's not really the news tonight. Tonight it's about Masterchef and absurdity. A Donkey is parachuted in Russia, causing children to freak. A Current Affair's Ben Fordham is slammed in court. And most ridiculous of all is word that one Tony Abbott will be a guest judge on Hey Hey's Red Faces tomorrow night. Way to appear fresh big guy. We can only hope he does it in blackface.

*Yes, I think it’s ok to use a person’s weight to make a pointless point on a blog. Because I am shallow and thin. Suck it up.

**Thanks to DR DHD of Inner Melbourne, who gave a little too much thought to the math in this equation.

Original images via the SMH and Phil Barresi's official site.

Day 3- Of Bodgies & Bullshit

2010-07-19T22:30:00.001+10:00

Something Labor campaign launches have been able to do, for better or worse, is trot out the legends, Gough, Bob and Paul, and sit them down together and ideally indicate that Labor is about the big stuff, big ideas from big men who are big enough to get over their pure hatred of each other and receive their applause from the comrades*. Conservatives don’t do this- perhaps because they turn, like Fraser, or perhaps because, like McMahon, like Sneddon, and maybe one day like Howard, their legacy doesn’t spin so sweetly. Conservative tends to look small with hindsight. It never plays as well to say ‘we let Australians pay off their mortgages faster, assuming they had enough coin to get a mortgage’ in place of ‘we opened up universities and supported great Artists and got out of Vietnam and apologised’ and so on.

EnforcedDecision2010 will not, however, provide such an easy visual for the Labor camp. Gough is said to be in a care facility, but the real problem is with the renewed hostilities between the Undertaker and the Bodgie, and last night’s Hawke telemovie won’t have helped the feud kicked into gear by Blanche’s book and Paul's private/public response.

I watched it. And yet I remember so very little. The actors were excellent- Richard Roxburgh further confirmed his vast talent by not slipping into the impersonation we can all do of Hawke, drawling, making an ahhh sound like a phlegmy Grandfather, pulling at the ear lobe, and Rachel Blake firmly ratified the idea that Hazel was good and wronged and it is a shame. Aside from that, what happened? Lessons had clearly been learnt from Underbelly, as tits were glimpsed before the first commercial break, but really, it was a breath of whatever. Keating was played as an Iago, Richo as a jilted puffy schoolboy (about two feet too tall), Kim as eternally loveable but a little gormless, and Bob as a shining light who just loved too much. Most of all, he loved his nation too much, as hilariously evidenced by the scene where PJK referred to this nation ‘at the arse-end of the world’. ‘What did you say?” screeched Hawkie. The personal insults and threats to power he could take. Of course. It was the dismissal of his nation, which he loved (did I mention how much Hawkie loved, and loves Australia? And how much Australia, still, apparently, loves him?) that really made him angry. Thanks again, creative consultants to the Hawke telemovie, Blanche D’Apulget and Robert J’Hawke.

On the hustage, Gillard remained in Queensland, whereas Abbott signed stuff (read on for this, friends) and hung out at the Crown casino. The Greens signed a deal to distribute preferences, unsurprisingly, but perhaps this adds pressure and adds to early momentum. On Sky news they suggest that Labor’s internal polling is closer to the Galaxy poll of yesterday (50-50) than the Newspoll (55-45) and Gillard herself says the election will be a photo finish at a lunchtime presser, but that could be underdog spin. Another area of post-match sport interview blathering which has been heavily embraced by our Politicos in the last 15 years (I’m pretty sure Keating wasn’t so fond of taking the underdog line). What’s with this desperate need to not be considered the favourite? A condition of the lowering-expectations trait so beloved by Australia? Please. Give me a leader happy to lead, confident in their ability to do so and happy to put themselves above the other. I guess we’re a nation fearful of hubris. Marion proved that on Masterchef.

A blip in NSW, where Greg Thomas, candidate for Hughes, had his house and electorate office hit up drive-by style. Thomas, member of the NSW Labor Crypts faction, had apparently called rival NSW Labor Bloods a pack of woofters. So it went.

In Melbourne Abbott was assaulted on WorkChoices again, signing a slip of paper on Radio (a Radio stunt! Was the sound of pen scratching paper compelling?) and may well have stifled the issue had the infamous 7:30Reportland brain belch not have happened. So now, when he says WorkChoices is dead, buried, Cremated (interesting order, but digress I do…) and then says ‘I can’t promise that individual elements of workplace relations laws won’t be altered’ or ‘we will not substantially tweak anything for the first term of an Abbott Government’, Kerry O’Brien grows another set of wings. Most important is that Abbott, the conviction guy, is lessening the impact of something he so clearly believes in, for the sake of electability. Conviction. If the conviction guy was let off the leash, wouldn’t be hearing about individual contracts and a ban on all abortions? The fact this ‘straight-talking’ guff bit so hard against Rudd further indicates how inept Kev and Labor had become at bomb diffusal. The guy is straining against the urge to say whatever comes into his head like a political Tourette’s case (Biceps! I like Bran! Manly Warringah suckhole! Budgie ball burning Mary saint of chest wax!) and each of those sharp pauses could be read as the battle between the tongue and the brain. He remains a chance of making a Bigotgate blunder, and for the sake of entertainment, we can only hope.

AND LATER THAT NIGHT

Gillard again reigns supreme in 730Reportland, sucking up Kerry’s punches on slogans and trust. O’Brien, after his triumphs against Rudd and Abbott earlier this year, hasn’t found the button to destroy Gillard yet, and though the line on the line (moving forward is about moving forward, Kerry…) is worthy, Gillard’s skills are in effect here.

The news bulletins carry bits of Abbott in Melbourne, but more of Costello. Costello remains the most effective Liberal in the ranks, assuming his membership is still valid. Perhaps he too will go the way of Fraser in his later years, perhaps touring immigration camps with his brother, apologising in person. For now, he’s doing well in upstaging his wee counterpart. He may want to play a larger part in the coming weeks. And his former party might advise against that.

Hawke, the real one, spoke of Costello in the interview after the melodrama last night, saying that at least Keating had the balls to challenge. At least that. And there’s the constant- if there’s one thing a Labor man hates more than that other Labor man, it’s a Liberal man. It’s what brings political people together- hate.

Meanwhile, Q&A again provides the unedifying sight of politicians making human-like gestures and sounds. Julie Bishop makes for a fascinating study. From the distance across my living room, through my new glasses to which I have not yet adjusted, she could pass for a human person. Piers Ackerman cracks bellicose, Waleed Aly and Tanya Plibersek seem oddly muted, and Bruce Hawker looks ready for a rumble. Nothing is decided and nothing changes, a hundred billion tweets are sent and we go to bed feeling a little sadder, a little dirtier. Day three. Three-days-down.

*Maybe the only former Labor PM we’ll get at the launch will be, ah, Kev. And that’s not such a good photo op.

Image via SMH

Day 2- Careful with babies, careful with where to put babies

2010-07-19T09:33:00.000+10:00

First poll is in; Galaxy has the ALP at 52- LIB 48. A good headline for the Government. Except that, as always, it’s in the detail. Gillard trounces Abbott in preferred PM (58-32), but 57% said that they disapprove of the way Rudd was dealt with. This might be something to watch, or it might be something we end up watching, a handy injection of drama if the story looks a little dull. Will it matter? As Mark Latham said, to know Rudd is to dislike Rudd. Perhaps we’ve forgotten what we thought of him a month ago.

On Insiders Barrie Cassidy gets a lame duck to grill in the form of the Minister for the Comfortable Growth of Elements of the Nation’s Population Over Time Which in Itself is Nothing Anyone Should Be Concerned About Because We Recognise that the Whole Big Australia Thing Was A Mistake, Tony Burke. Burke stumbles through, but Cassidy effectively skewers the silliness of Burke’s new role

BARRIE CASSIDY: … I guess we'll have to live with slogans for the next few weeks. But even your portfolio - sustainable population - that's a concept. It's a slogan, sustainable population.

TONY BURKE: Well it's a job and it's a job I've been given.

Good thing that Tony is being kept busy.

Instead of his weird, glowing, ‘I-am-in-the-glare-of-history-and-I-will-be-remembered-as-the-vision-guy’ statement of believing in a big Australia and making no apology for it on the 7:30 Report way back when, one wonders if we’d be here, discussing this, if Rudd had chosen more workable, less inflammatory language to discuss population growth. If he had said, say 'I believe in applying the best minds in planning and architecture and sustainable growth to best accommodate the changes that will occur to this country over the next 30 years and ensure that these changes make the country a better place', would this be on the table now?

Perhaps the debate is useful in framing the nation’s relationship to sharing their space, to privileging the private block at the expense of the environment and the community and the stuff that can’t be sold in a megamall quite as easily but actually brings meaning.

Gillard announces a 200million 'Regional Plan', which cleverly misses one critcal point- that more would live in these regional centres except for the fact that they don't want to, expertly indicating an awareness of urban planning and quality of life surveys by pledging to ensure that Australia doesn't become congested like areas Europe. Prime Minister, of which European cities do you speak? Those notorious hellholes Barcelona, Paris? Those choking pits of Dickensian horror Milan, Amsterdam, Zurich? What about Copenhagen- the people there seem so poor that they all gad about on bikes! Nary a medium-large family station wagon among them!

ABC news leads with image after image of Gillard snaffling babies (how could she, cries someone, apparently, if we believe Heffernan and one suspects quite a few more- how could she even know how to hold one?) in Queensland. Meanwhile, this guy re-entered Canberra.

Cue the Jaws theme, or an oompa band?

And at the end of the day, as all the tragics settle in for the Hawke melodrama, NineMSN has another poll- Galaxy again (do we often get 2 polls on one day from the same source?). And it says that Labour has some trouble. 50-50 2 party. Newspoll offer their first of the campaign soon after, and they have Labour at 55-45. In the ad break after Hawkie learns of his daughters addiction, I see the 'Action Contract' ad for the first of I assume, many many times. Day 2, Abbott has 50% or 45% 2 party, and a jingle.

Image via Ch 7/News Ltd.

Day 1- Forward Motion

2010-07-18T19:43:00.000+10:00

At 10:30 we’re tuned in to the ABC, not lining Adelaide Avenue as many Canberrafolk are. Why are they there? For the same reason we watch- not for confirmation of the election being called; the leaks and announcements, the tweets and not-very off the record senior Gov sources have already had that in the bag since early yesterday. We watch, live, from several angles including a hilariously overblown helicopter, for the breaking news moment, the electricity garnered from something ‘big’ happening ‘right now’. It’s the suspension of the conditioned televisual time-continuum. Breaking news provides a satisfying alteration to the daily schedule. We’re well versed in this now, and as soon as we see the ticker across the bottom of the screen announcing something fresh and big enough to upset regular programming (for such interruptions cost money, and put people in television broadcast centres through hell, so they’ve gotta be worth it) we prick up our eyes. Sad then, that since 9/11 most breaking news comes as a bit of a letdown. And the sight of a white commodore with a flag on the bonnet driving through a gate, providing maybe 12 seconds of raw footage, doesn’t really do the job.

Still, we’re away, as is the core team of ABC 24, the new all hours news service that launches on the 22nd. Annabel Crabb is a welcome studio host, though her cross back to the grizzled but I guess trustworthy Chris Uhlmann is beginner abrupt. Uhlmann will helm this 24 service and is probably as good an option as the ABC have, but is there a smile in him? Will we get any colour to balance that indignation that seems to bubble beneath the skin? And more to the point, will there be enough news to stretch to a full 24 hours? Will this campaign compel?

Gillard then addresses the nation from outside office looking part Joan of Arc, part weekend manager at a Klein’s outlet (can I suggest these cuff links shaped as both a yin and yang?), and I don’t remember much aside from the two word mantra for which she’ll rightly be pilloried. Moving forward is clever enough politically, but a slogan needs to be used judiciously. This, and the countering great big new whatever we’ll be hearing from that stilted staccato of the Abbott does no favours for process. But it is as it is, the way things get done.

The most interesting narrative was Peter Hartchers I think- he calls the election timing an act of opportunism, just as her rolling of Rudd indicated a canny opportunism, having little to do with anything outside political ambition and the getting, then retention of power. Gillard seems to have a good response to such a charge- that it is the Australian people’s ‘birthright’ to elect their prime minister, and calling an election so swiftly (in the job 24 days remember) is honouring said birthright. And yet, when coupled with this already inane mantra of forward-movement, snags emerge. Rudd was rolled because ‘a good government had gone bad’. And yet 24 days, surely, is too short a time to right those wrongs. And so the call of opportunism. There's something in it

Of course, we don’t elect leaders, regardless of the presidential politics we’ve had in the nation for a long time. But the seeming subtlety of an argument detailing that Rudd was installed by ‘back-room assassins’ in 2006, just as Gillard was in 2010, gets lost in campaign excitement, and rolling a PM bites harder than rolling an opposition leader. A PM is ‘ours’- an opposition leader is a loser by definition, and is owned by a party and its base, until that party and base decides they’ve a better shot with someone else. So, right or wrong, Gillard will be hit by this and one wonders if her ready defence is enough.

Disappointment 1 of the campaign on the Labour side was news that the writs will be issued for Monday, not Wednesday as previously tipped. Better than the sameday horseshit peddled by Howard, but still not good enough, and strange, considering that it’s the young, who by popular understanding tend to head incumbent or veer left, whose votes get missed. An oversight? Or a lack of vision?

Image via News Ltd.